Gareth Fuller/PA Images via Getty Images. Pictured: Southampton’s Danny Ings, second from left, celebrates a goal with his teammates.
Southampton vs. Sheffield United Odds
| Southampton Odds | -143 [BET NOW] |
| Sheffield United Odds | +400 [BET NOW] |
| Draw | +290 [BET NOW] |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (+104/-127) [BET NOW] |
| Time | 7 a.m. ET |
| TV | NBCSN |
Odds updated as of Saturday at 3 p.m. ET and via DraftKings. Get up to a $1,000 sign-up bonus at DraftKings today or see more offers and reviews for the best online sportsbooks.
Things could get out of hand quickly when Southampton hosts struggling Sheffield United in Sunday’s Premier League action at St. Mary’s Stadium.
The Saints are enjoying a lovely run to the start of their campaign in England’s top flight, sitting pretty in sixth place on the table with 20 points. They were winners last time out, getting a late Danny Ings goal to secure a 2- 1 win over Brighton & Hove Albion.
On the other side, life could not be going any worse for the Blades. They are in last place and winless through 11 fixtures, with just a single point coming via a 1-1 draw with Fulham almost two months ago as the lone positive result.
Let’s take a peek at these sides and see what might be in store for this game.
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Southampton
Manager Ralph Hasenhüttl and the Saints have to be excited about their prospects after their impressive beginning to the season.
Southampton is unbeaten in four of its last five matches, with the lone blemish being that 3-2 loss to Manchester United three games back. The Saints held a 2-0 lead in the second half before a late double from reserve Edinson Cavani sealed the Red Devils’ come-from-behind victory.
When looking at the data and statistics, it’s surprising to see how mediocre Southampton has been in the major categories if taking into consideration its record and league standing.
The Saints boast a subpar 11.8 xGs, which is good enough for 14th place in the 20-team league. Southampton’s 14.7 expected goals against is nothing to write home about, either.
Those numbers translate into a subpar -2.9 xGDiff and -0.27 for xGDiff/90 minutes. The Saints’ xGDiff is the worst of any team in the top 10 on the table.
Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.
Sheffield United
The Blades really need to get things turned around quickly, or they’re going to all but guarantee themselves relegation before we even hit the last two months of the season.
Sheffield United has lost seven consecutive league affairs, scoring just five goals in the process. The club nearly stole a home point against Leicester City last weekend at Bramall Lane, but a Jamie Vardy dagger in the 90th minute led the visiting side to all three points.
Although the record and results tell a very sad tale, you could say the Blades have also endured a good run of bad luck. They have suffered one-goal losses in five of their last six league tilts, which seems a tad unlucky and unfair.
As you could imagine, Sheffield United’s overall advanced metrics are some of the worst in the league. The Blades sit on a mediocre 11.0 xGs and a brutal 17.5 expected goals against, generating a disheartening -6.5 xGDiff and -0.59 for xGDiff/90 minutes.
The only club with a worse collection of numbers is West Bromwich Albion, which is right above Sheffield United in the relegation zone in 19th place.
Betting Analysis & Picks
This match should play out exactly the way it looks on paper.
Southampton is above and beyond the much better side, with a realistic dream of making the Europa League if it continues its relatively solid form. In contrast, Sheffield United is going nowhere fast and destined for a trip down to the Championship after last year’s promising performance.
That said, I am backing Southampton on the moneyline to bag all three points at St. Mary’s. Ings and the offense will just be too much for a Sheffield United defense that has conceded 1.63 GA on average this season.
I will also back the Saints to score at least two goals at fair -114 odds. Southampton has scored two goals in every home fixture this season, and I see that streak continuing in this spot. Play both angles with confidence.
Picks: Southampton ML (-143) | Southampton Team Total Over 1.5 Goals (-114)
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