David Horton – CameraSport via Getty Images. Pictured: Brighton’s Dan Burns against Leicester City.
Southampton vs. Brighton Odds
| Southampton Odds | +200 |
| Brighton Odds | +160 |
| Draw | 215 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (+130 / -165) |
| Day | Time | Sunday | 8 a.m. ET |
| How To Watch | Peacock Premium |
| Odds as of Friday afternoon via Unibet. | |
The first of four Premier League matches on Sunday features two of the bottom-seven teams in the league. But Southampton and Brighton still have plenty on the line, particularly the latter.
Here’s a closer look at the two clubs, followed by a prediction.
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Southampton
Southampton entered the weekend in 14th place with 33 points — seven points ahead of 18th-place Fulham. Their chances of being relegated are just 1% according to FiveThirtyEight, but their recent form is distressing nonetheless.
Since mid-January, Southampton have won just one of their 11 league matches, and that was a 2-0 victory over bottom-of-the-table Sheffield United last Saturday.
The good vibes didn’t last long. Southampton were shellacked by Manchester City on Wednesday, 5-2 — their ninth loss in those past 11 matches. The only other game in which they picked up a point was a 1-1 draw with Chelsea on Feb. 20.
Southampton have scored more goals than expected — 35, on 28.5 xG (according to FBRef.com). But they’ve also conceded far more than expected — 49, on 37.6 xG. Only 19th-place West Brom have conceded more goals this season (56).
All in all, the underlying numbers place Southampton exactly where they are, 14th, with an xG differential of -9.1.
Brighton
Brighton continue to befuddle those of us who dive into the xG numbers each week. They are now in 17th place with 26 points — level on points with 18th-place Fulham, ahead of them only on goal difference. Brighton is at -8, Fulham at -11.
And yet, if you look at xG differential, Brighton continues to be one of the top teams in the league. They remain fourth in that category at +11.3, behind only Manchester City (+32.5), Chelsea (+20.5) and Liverpool (+15.9). That means Brighton are ahead of second-place Manchester United (+10.5), among many others.
FiveThirtyEight is still showing confidence in Brighton, pegging their odds of relegation at just 12%, well behind Newcastle (42%) and Fulham (31%). But that probably doesn’t make Brighton fans feel much better right now.
Brighton are winless in their past five league matches, including three consecutive defeats — 2-1 to Leicester City last Saturday, preceded by a 1-0 defeat at West Brom and a 2-1 loss to Crystal Palace. The match against Leicester was near even xG-wise, and Brighton dominated the other two opponents by a combined xG of 5.2 to 0.7.
Betting Analysis & Picks
Southampton won the first meeting 2-1 back in early December, but Brighton was tops in terms of xG, 2.1 to 1.1. Sound familiar?
More importantly, Danny Ings is out for Southampton due to injury. Ings is their leading scorer this season, with eight league goals in 22 appearances.
I’m going to continue to trust the underlying numbers. Brighton have been much better than Southampton in terms of xG and are due for a win, and then some.
Pick: Brighton (+160)
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