Catherine Ivill/Getty Images. Pictured: Michail Antonio.
Manchester United vs. West Ham Odds
| Manchester United Odds | -118 |
| West Ham Odds | +350 |
| Draw | +250 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-109 / -114) |
| Day | Time | Sunday | 3:15 p.m. ET |
| TV | NBCSN |
| Odds as of Saturday afternoon via DraftKings. | |
Manchester United pulled off the upset in the Manchester Derby last weekend, winning 2-0 and ending Manchester City’s winning Premier League run.
This weekend, United returns home on Sunday to host West Ham United, who have won three of four in the EPL entering Sunday’s contest and can move into the top four with a victory.
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Manchester United
United played a midweek matchup against AC Milan in the Europa League Round of 16 and tied, 1-1, at home. That means United need to score at least one goal next week in Milan to have a chance to go through. The Red Devils are in good enough position in the Premier League that they may rotate some players against West Ham to prepare for that fixture.
When these two sides met at the London Stadium on Dec. 5, West Ham completely dominated the first half and should have been two goals ahead. Instead, some poor finishing and great goalkeeping kept it to just one. Once Marcus Rashford came on in the second half, though, he changed the game and got in behind multiple times. United eventually won, 3-1.
Rashford won’t be available in this game, though, and Edinson Cavani and Anthony Martial are also both unlikely to play. United’s lengthy injury list isn’t really priced into the number yet given that this line opened around -125.
United’s attack is running way ahead of its expected goals (xG) numbers, more so than any attack in the Premier League. But United’s attacking output has also been quite good since Christmas. Since then, only Man City has more xG created in the PL.
But take out two of United’s best shot getters and their best player to progress the ball upfield in Paul Pogba, and the attacking output declines significantly. It’s much easier to see West Ham break down an inconsistent United defense than the reverse, given the injuries.
West Ham
West Ham leads the league in shots taken from inside the six-yard box because Tomáš Souček and Michail Antonio are excellent at getting into scoring positions.
Since Christmas, David Moyes’ side has been second best in the league by xG. There is nothing fluky about the success of the Hammers, who are actually running slightly behind their expected goals for (xGF) numbers in attack. West Ham outplayed Tottenham and City in the last month and easily handled Leeds United on Monday afternoon.
Antonio isn’t listed on the injury report for West Ham, and he is a big addition to the attack. He was the best player on the pitch in United’s 1-1 draw with West Ham last season in July, and he didn’t play against United in December.
When Antonio has been on the pitch, West Ham have been +0.96 xGD per 90 compared to when he’s off the pitch. On/off splits in soccer can be very noisy and there are plenty of confounding variables, but this matches up with the eye test. They don’t have another forward who is as effective at getting shots and linking up play. Simply put, the attack is worse without him, and he also does above average defensive work for a forward.
The Hammers come into this game with three extra days of rest compared to United and are entirely focused on the top-four race, while their opposition may have an eye on the Europa League.
Betting Analysis & Picks
This is a nightmare spot for United, sandwiched between Europa League fixtures. West Ham is in excellent form and should be able to get a point here away from home. The United attack will be dulled without their top attacking options, and I’ll also be sprinkling some on the money line here.
My projections make West Ham at -115 to get a point in this game, so I like the Hammers +0.5 at -105 or better. I’d advise to bet this one early, though, because the market is likely to react to a weaker United lineup when it’s announced an hour before kickoff. For the moneyline, anything +320 or higher for Moyes’ men is good.
Pick: West Ham +0.5 -103 (up to -105)
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