James Williamson – AMA/Getty Images. Pictured: Bukayo Saka.
Leicester City vs. Arsenal Odds
| Leicester City Odds | +150 |
| Arsenal Odds | +185 |
| Draw | +235 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-105/-120) |
| Day | Time | Sunday | 7 a.m. ET |
| TV | NBCSN |
| Odds as of Friday afternoon and via DraftKings. | |
Leicester looks to maintain its spot inside the top four on Sunday morning when it hosts Arsenal.
Leicester is coming off an extremely disappointing home defeat at the hands of Slavia Prague in the Europa League Round of 32.
THE CZECH CHAMPIONS HAVE SHOCKED LEICESTER!
What a stunning strike 💥 pic.twitter.com/J1c63UIVXj
— Champions League on CBS Sports (@UCLonCBSSports) February 25, 2021
However, it’s been on a good run in the Premier League, as it’s won three of their last four matches, including wins over Liverpool and Aston Villa.
Leicester is going through some injury issues at the moment with starters James Maddison, Dennis Praet, James Justin, and Ayoze Perez out for this match. Can the Foxes rebound for their third straight win in England?
Arsenal needed a furious comeback in its Europa League Round of 32 tie against Benfica, and it got it with a thrilling Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang header in the 88th minute.
Saka 🤝 Auba. CLUTCH. 🔥 pic.twitter.com/uy8vnBL5td
— Champions League on CBS Sports (@UCLonCBSSports) February 25, 2021
However, the Gunners have hit a bit of a bad stretch in the Premier League, as they’ve lost three of their last four matches and their last two on the road. They lost 1-0 at home against Leicester back in October, so the Gunners will be looking for some revenge on Sunday at the King Power Stadium.
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Leicester City
The Foxes are currently occupying the third spot in the table, but their underlying metrics tell a different story.
Based on Understat’s expected points metric, Leicester should 8.77 fewer points to its name, which would put it in sixth place. It has been too reliant on two things: penalties and Jamie Vardy. Leicester City has been awarded nine penalties, which is tied for the most in the league this season. It’s also struggling to create chances from open play, with only 1.09 expected goals per match.
In addition to that, Vardy has been the Foxes’ only scoring threat this season. The 33-year-old has been involved in 38% of their goals, averaging a ridiculous 0.77 xG per 90 minutes. Another issue is their best two facilitators James Maddison and Dennis Praet, who combine for 0.38 xAssists per 90 minutes, are going to miss this match due to injury.
Leicester City, for whatever reason, has also struggled at the King Power during the campaign. The club has only taken 19 of a possible 36 points at home, which is the league’s sixth-best mark. It also only has a +0.11 xGDiff at home, which is not what you’d expect from a club currently in third place.
Arsenal
Even though Arsenal has hit a skid over its past four matches, it’s leaps and bounds better than where they were at the beginning of the season.
The biggest difference has been young sensations Bukayo Saka & Emile Smith Rowe who have been creating chances left and right. Mikel Arteta gave Smith Rowe his first Premier League start against Chelsea and ever since the Gunners have looked like a completely different squad.
The proof in the numbers, too. Take a look at how Arsenal was playing before and after Christmas.
Saka and Smith Rowe have been the main catalysts for this resurgence, which has also greatly benefitted star striker Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang.
The Gabonese frontman has been on fire as of late, scoring five goals in his last four appearances and three of the five goals were assisted by either Bukayo Saka or Emile Smith Rowe.
Betting Analysis & Picks
Based on the current odds, I do not think there is much value on this game.
This will be each club’s fourth match in 14 days, so the players are coming into Sunday exhausted. So, I am going to instead take a look at the prop market for this match.
Saka and Smith Rowe have combined to dish out eight assists over the past two months and have been the main creator for the Gunners, so I am going to back each of them to give an assist at +500 odds.
Pick: Bukayo Saka to give an assist (+500) & Emile Smith Rowe to give an assist (+500).
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