Sunday Premier League Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: Leeds United vs. Burnley (Dec. 27)

Leeds vs. Burnley Odds

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If you’re looking for something other than a caffeine-infused beverage to get your Sunday started, the opening Premier League match of the day just might do the trick.

High-flying Leeds United kicks off the card bright and early with its showdown against upstart Burnley at Elland Road.

The Peacocks are must-see TV every time they step on the pitch despite the fact they’re currently sitting in 14th place on the table in England’s top flight.

Leeds was handed a 6-2 blowout loss by Manchester United at Old Trafford last time it took the pitch. That eight-goal outburst came on the heels of the Peacocks’ 5-2 rout of Newcastle United, which is on the complete opposite end of the results spectrum.

On the other side, Burnley has worked its way out of the relegation zone via its current four-match unbeaten streak. The Clarets have two wins and two draws during that stretch, with a clutch, 2-1 win over Wolves in their last tilt.

Let’s take a look at what’s on deck with these clubs in this exciting fixture.

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Leeds

There is no team more electric and unpredictable in England’s top flight than the lads from Elland Road.

The Peacocks enter this contest off that debacle at Old Trafford but have put together some solid results along the way through their 14 games. The triumph over Newcastle is just one example, along with its Nov. 28 win over Everton at Goodison Park.

Yet, the other side of Leeds has reared its ugly head on more than one occasion this season. It’s those kinds of poor performances manager Marcelo Bielsa must help this side rectify if it’s going to consistently battle for a spot on the top half of the table.

When looking at the statistical data, Leeds’ overall figures are the definition of a numbers rollercoaster. The Peacocks boast a solid 25.6 expected goals versus a ghastly 27.1 expected goals against, resulting in a subpar -1.5 xGDiff and -0.11 xGDiff/90 minutes.

How wild are Leeds’ stats when measured against its league foes? The Peacocks are far and away the second-best club in xG overall, trailing only defending league champion and current leader Liverpool.

In contrast, Leeds is last among all teams in xGA, with only West Bromwich Albion (26.2 xGA) within shouting distance of its dubious distinction.

Burnley

Things looked bleak and dreary at the start of November before the Clarets righted the ship en route to ripping off four solid efforts.

Life went from a relegation battle to being three points clear of the bottom just like that for Burnley, which is now sitting in 16th place in the standings on 13 points.

Prior to that match with Wolves, the Clarets settled for a 1-1 tie with Everton and a scoreless stalemate against Aston Villa. Sandwiched in between those results was a quality, 1-0 shutout win over Arsenal.

Burnley’s advanced metrics are not that strong but have improved over the course of its recent positive results. The Clarets have generated a lowly 11.1 xGs and disappointing 19.1 expected goals against, resulting in a -8.0 xGDiff and -0.61 for xGDiff/90 minutes.

Their xGDiff and xGDiff/90 rank 18th in the league, with cellar-dwellers Sheffield United (-9.8 xGDiff | -0.70 xGDiff/90) and West Brom (-17.8 xGDiff | -1.27 xGDiff/90) bringing up the rear in the categories.

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Betting Analysis & Picks

My affinity for Leeds has been strong since that season-opening 4-3 loss to Liverpool at Anfield. From that point on, I knew the Peacocks would be fun to watch the rest of the way.

However, that devastating defeat against Manchester United really exposed Leeds’ defensive weaknesses that will benefit an in-form side like Burnley.

Both outfits will surely be seeking all three points, so I am going to avoid backing a side and make the total going over the number my top play. There have been at least three goals in Leeds’ last four league fixtures, with the Peacocks conceding at least two in that quartet of games.

Keeping that in mind, I will also sprinkle a little on both teams to score. I would either shop around for a slightly better than the -180 currently offered or take the risk and play it when the number dips to around -150 if possible.

Picks: Total Over 2.5 Goals (-167) | Both Teams To Score — Yes (-180)