Martin Rickett/PA Images via Getty Images. Pictured: Ollie Watkins.
Aston Villa vs. West Brom Odds
| Aston Villa Odds | -108 |
| West Brom Odds | +300 |
| Draw | +260 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-105 / -115) |
| Day | Time | Sunday | 2 p.m. ET |
| How To Watch | Peacock Premium |
| Odds updated Saturday afternoon via DraftKings. | |
It’s now or never for West Brom as they try and get out of the relegation zone on Sunday against Aston Villa.
Aston Villa has shown a lot of improvement this season, holding an outside chance of qualifying for the Europa League. However, they’ve seen a bit of a dip in form over the past two months as they’ve been without their captain and best player, Jack Grealish. They will once again be without him on Sunday, so we’ll see if Aston Villa can cope without him on the field.
West Brom is in dire straights after losing 3-0 to Leicester on Thursday. The Baggies are nine points from safety with only six matches left in the season. So, this match on Sunday is an absolute must win for Sam Allardyce’s men if they want to have any hope at survival.
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Aston Villa
Aston Villa started off their match against Manchester City in terrific fashion, scoring only 21 seconds into the match on Wednesday.
ASTON VILLA SCORE AFTER JUST 21 SECONDS.
(that's the tweet) #AVLMCI pic.twitter.com/4nFMYzX7n8
— NBC Sports Soccer (@NBCSportsSoccer) April 21, 2021
However, the Villans were not able to keep Manchester City in check, allowing two first half goals on their way to a 2-1 defeat. The loss has now put Aston Villa’s hopes of finishing in a Europa League spot on life support, sitting nine points behind Tottenham for the final spot, but they do have two games in hand.
With Jack Grealish, Aston Villa boast one of the best attacks in the Premier League, averaging 1.74 xG per match. However, with Grealish on the sidelines, the Villans are only averaging 1.04 xG per match. However, the good news for Aston Villa is they will be going up against the worst defense in the Premier League that they hung three goals on the last time these two met.
West Brom
The Baggies had a short spell of fantastic form, beating Chelsea on the road and Southampton at home in back-to-back matches. However, it was short lived as they were picked apart in the first half against Leicester on Thursday, allowing three goals in a 13 minute span.
It’s hard to overstate how bad West Brom has been this season. The biggest issue is that it’s failed to create any chances in front of net. For the season, the Baggies are averaging only 0.85xG per match, which is the lowest rate in the Premier League.
Additionally, they’ve created only 12.35 xG in 16 away matches this season. So, I have a hard time seeing how the Baggies are going to break down Aston Villa’s defense that allows only 1.33 xG per match.
Things maybe wouldn’t be so bad for West Brom if its issues were reserved for one side of the pitch. However, that is not the case, as West Brom has allowed the most expected goals in the Premier League at 2.06 xG per match. So, even without Grealish, I think Aston Villa should be able to break down West Brom’s defense.
Betting Analysis & Pick
Even without Grealish in the lineup, I think Aston Villa are severely undervalued at home. West Brom is in desperation mode, which is being reflected in this line, but they are one of the worst Premier League teams of the past decade and should be much bigger underdogs considering the last time they faced Aston Villa they created only 0.03 xG total for the match.
Since I have Aston Villa projected at -254, I think there is a ton of value on them at -108 (DraftKings).
Picks: Aston Villa -108
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