Tottenham Hotspur FC via Getty Images. Pictured: Harry Kane.
Aston Villa vs. Spurs Odds
| Aston Villa Odds | +190 |
| Spurs Odds | +145 |
| Draw | +240 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-115 / -115) |
| Day | Time | Sunday | 3:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | NBCSN |
| Odds as of Saturday afternoon and via BetMGM. | |
The second of two Premier League matches on Sunday is an intriguing one, that’s for sure.
Can Tottenham Hotspur bounce back from their disastrous Europa League exit against an Aston Villa team that is just one place and four points below them in the table?
Here’s a closer look at the two clubs, followed by a prediction.
Aston Villa
Aston Villa are currently in ninth place with 41 points, four points below eighth-place Spurs. They have a game in hand on Tottenham, as well.
Villa are coming off back-to-back draws — 1-1 at Newcastle last Friday and a 0-0 showing against Wolves before that. They also lost two of their previous three matches, including a defeat at the hands of last-place Sheffield United.
It’s no coincidence that Villa’s talisman, Jack Grealish, has been missing for this poor run of results in the past five games.
Grealish has six goals and 10 assists in 22 league appearances. Only Harry Kane (13) and Kevin De Bruyne (11) have more assists this season. Grealish is also second in the league in chances created with 76, behind only Bruno Fernandes (81).
Unfortunately for Villa fans, it sounds like Grealish will also miss this game.
In terms of the underlying numbers, Aston Villa are right where they belong in the table. They’re ninth in terms of xG (expected goal) differential, at +5.1 according to FBref.com.
Tottenham Hotspur
Spurs have had a really rough week. They lost the North London derby, 2-1, at Arsenal on Sunday, and then they lost 3-0 at Dinamo Zagreb on Thursday, blowing a 2-0 lead from the first leg and getting eliminated from the Europa League.
You want evidence of a team in turmoil?
Exhibit A: Manager Jose Mourinho rips his players after the match:
You 𝗻𝗲𝗲𝗱 to listen to his Jose Mourinho interview 😳
He wears his heart on his sleeve as he looks at a horrible night for the club… pic.twitter.com/Wwi2THhPBH
— Football on BT Sport (@btsportfootball) March 18, 2021
And here’s Exhibit B, from captain Hugo Lloris:
"It's just a disgrace. I hope everyone in the changing room feels responsible."
Hugo Lloris didn't hold back following Tottenham's Europa League exit.#UEL pic.twitter.com/dl7JZYS8am
— Football on BT Sport (@btsportfootball) March 18, 2021
How will Spurs respond? It’s hard to predict, honestly. This kind of stuff could motivate the players or do the exact opposite.
Spurs had won five straight matches in all competitions prior to these two defeats, including scoring four goals against both Burnley and Crystal Palace. Gareth Bale scored four of their eight goals in those two games, and it looked like he was finally emerging as the game-changing attacker Spurs thought they were re-acquiring from Real Madrid.
Tottenham enter this game in eighth, six points behind fourth-place Chelsea in the race for the final Champions League spot. In terms of the underlying numbers, Spurs are actually lower in the table in terms of xG differential: 10th at +4.3, just below Aston Villa.
Betting Analysis & Pick
This is a rescheduled fixture, so it’s the first meeting between these two clubs this season. And I’m going to assume that Grealish won’t be available.
Spurs will likely also be missing a key player in Son Heung-min, but they still have Kane who, in addition to leading the league in assists, is also tied for second in goals with 16, one behind Mohamed Salah. Bale has made a big impact of late, too.
Aston Villa have scored just three goals in the last five matches without Grealish. That includes only one goal in the past three games, against 20th-place Sheffield United, 13th-place Wolves and 17th-place Newcastle — and that was an own goal by Newcastle’s Ciaran Clark.
I’m backing Spurs to respond positively to this crisis and keep their hopes of Champions League qualification through the Premier League alive.
Pick: Tottenham Hotspur +145
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