John Walton/PA Images via Getty Images. Pictured: Gareth Bale and Harry Kane.
Arsenal vs. Spurs Odds
| Arsenal Odds | +155 |
| Spurs Odds | +188 |
| Draw | +230 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-113 / -110) |
| Day | Time | Sunday | 12:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | NBCSN |
| Odds as of Saturday afternoon via DraftKings. | |
One of England’s biggest rivalries is renewed on Sunday as Tottenham Hotspur travel four miles to take on Arsenal at the Emirates Stadium.
Both teams are lower in the Premier League table than they anticipated to be at this point in the season, with Spurs in seventh and Arsenal in 10th entering the match.
Spurs won the reverse fixture 2-0 at home in December, but haven’t won at Arsenal since 2010.
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Arsenal
It’s been a tale of two seasons for the Gunners, who found themselves as low as 15th in the Premier League in December. Since the Gunners turned to their youth, namely Bukayo Saka and Emile Smith-Rowe in the attacking roles in midfield, their performances have improved. Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang isn’t what he used to be either, but his performances have improved in attack.
Arsenal ranks sixth in the Premier League in non-penalty expected goals (NPxG) since Christmas and fifth in defense, both according to Understat. Overall, the Gunners improved from playing like a team in the bottom half of the table to playing like a Europa League-quality team. The gap is likely to be too large for them to make it into European competition next season, but Arsenal’s improvement is why they are favored in this match.
However, the Gunners haven’t performed well when battling with other big-six clubs this season. Also, when they have fallen behind early, Arsenal have struggled to create significant scoring chances and mount comebacks. They’ve settled for lots of possession and low-quality chances and have not been able to break through.
Spurs
Spurs are in a slightly better spot than Arsenal entering this match since they didn’t travel on Thursday for their Europa League fixture against Dinamo Zagreb, while the Gunners played away in Greece.
The resurgence of Gareth Bale in the Spurs attack has added a necessary third option to Harry Kane and Heung-min Son. While Kane is still in great form, Son has cooled off from his hot start. But with all three up front, Spurs have posted 6.3 total xGF in their last three matches. That success came against three sides that are relatively low in the table, but it cannot be ignored entering Sunday’s derby.
The tactical battle in this matchup comes down to how well Spurs defend their right flank. Only two teams attack more down the left than Arsenal, but Tottenham will have first-choice right back Serge Aurier back in this match to help defend that wing.
Throughout the match, Arsenal are likely to have more of the ball while Spurs look to counter with the likes of Lucas Moura, Bale, Kane and Son.
Spurs have everyone fit for this match except midfielder Giovani Lo Celso, who has been out for months, and it’s as healthy as they have been all season.
Betting Analysis & Picks
In terms of xG and recent form, these two teams are quite similar. Both are within a goal of one another in both xGF and xGA, with Spurs benefitting from above-average finishing from Kane and Son.
Tottenham also have the managerial edge in this one, with Arteta barely one year into the job. Mourinho’s men know exactly how they plan to set up in this match.
Expect Arsenal to dominate the possession and look to create overloads on their left side while Spurs look to break out and counter.
The addition of Bale into the lineup to help spring counters and Spurs being offered at plus-money here on the Draw No Bet line tips me to Tottenham. Arsenal’s defense has made too many mistakes to trust in this North London Derby.
Pick: Spurs Draw No Bet (+105 or better)
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