Michael Regan/Getty Images. Pictured: Anwar El Ghazi of Aston Villa celebrates with John McGinn.
Aston Villa vs. Manchester United Odds
| Aston Villa Odds | +335 |
| Manchester United Odds | -125 |
| Draw | +280 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-137 / +110) |
| Day | Time | Sunday | 9:05 a.m. ET |
| How To Watch | Peacock Premium |
| Odds updated Saturday afternoon via DraftKings. | |
Manchester United look to clinch their spot in the Champions League next season when they travel to take on Aston Villa.
Aston Villa pulled off a big upset over Everton on the road last weekend to keep their hopes of finishing inside the top half of the table alive. The Villans have shown a lot of improvement this season, but they’ve seen a bit of a dip in form over the past two months as they’ve been without their captain and best player, Jack Grealish. They will once again be without him on Sunday, so we’ll see if Aston Villa can once again cope without him on the field.
Manchester United are having a fantastic season and can lock up a Champions League spot with a win on Sunday. The Red Devils secured their place in the Europa League final on Thursday, but are in the middle of jam-packed stretch of fixtures, as this will be their second of four matches in seven days. With Leicester and Liverpool upcoming this week, Ole Gunnar Solskjær may be rotating his squad on Sunday.
Aston Villa
Aston Villa’s hopes of a Europa League spot are pretty much gone at this point of the season. The Villans’ bad stretch over the past three months without Jack Grealish really was disappointing after the first half of the season was so promising.
With Grealish, Aston Villa boast one of the best attacks in the Premier League, averaging 1.74 xG per match. However, with Grealish on the sidelines, the Villans are only averaging 1.23 xG per match. Aston Villa have shown over the past two matches that they perhaps don’t need Grealish.
Against West Brom and Everton, the Villans created a combined 5.16 expected goals. So, if they can keep that up against Manchester United on Sunday, they should have a chance at pulling off the upset.
Manchester United
Despite being in second place in the Premier League table, the Red Devils have been a bit fortunate in front of net this season. Manchester United have scored 64 goals on the season but created only 56.38 expected goals.
Manchester United are in fantastic form in the Premier League, going unbeaten in their last 13 matches. The reason for that is because defensively they’ve been as solid as anybody over the second half of the season. Since the calendar turned to 2021, the Red Devils are allowing only 1.01 xG per match. However, their defense was really shaky on Thursday against Roma in the Europa League, as they allowed the Italian side to create 4.68 expected goals in the match.
Manchester United have not lost on the road this season and have produced +7.69 expected goals differential, so Aston Villa will have their hands full on Sunday.
Betting Analysis & Pick
Even though Manchester United have been in fantastic form in the Premier League, I think they are vulnerable in this spot with two more matches in the next four days.
Therefore, I am going to back Aston Villa’s spread of +0.5 at +105 odds (DraftKings).
Pick: Aston Villa +0.5 (+105)
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