Sunday Ligue 1 Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: Paris Saint-Germain vs. Lyon (Dec. 13)

PSG vs. Lyon Odds

The best two clubs in France square off in Paris on Sunday when Paris Saint-Germain battles Lyon for a spot at top of the table.

PSG got things back on track last Saturday, beating Montpellier on the road. Most recently, the Parisians defeated Istanbul, 5-1, at Parc des Princes in Champions League action Wednesday to secure a spot in the knockout stage.

On the other side, Lyon is on fire in Ligue 1 play, winning six of its last seven matches. Lyon did not qualify for European competitions after finishing in seventh place last season, so it’s determined to get back to the UCL competition after reaching the quarterfinals last season.

As far as recent history goes, PSG is 9-1-0 against Lyon at home in league play since 2010.

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PSG

The French giant lost its first two matches in Ligue 1, but have been on a path of destruction since then, winning nine of its last 11 matches by a combined score of 33-7.

The Parisians’ games typically feature an abundance of scoring chances. Dating back to the beginning of last season, games featuring PSG are averaging 3.71 expected goals and 50 percent of its contests have gone over the total of 3.5 goals.

PSG’s offense has been running rampant all season long, but took it to another level with Neymar and Kylian Mbappé returning after spending a few weeks on the sideline due to injury. The league champion is averaging 2.43 xG over its last six matches and should be able to break down Lyon’s defense.

Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.

Lyon

Les Gones has completely rebounded from a disappointing 2019-20 campaign, sitting right on PSG’s heels in the title race.

So far this season, Lyon has the second-most goals in France and averages 2.29 xGF per match. The club also has the No. 2 expected goal differential at +17.9, which is much better than its +11.51 in 28 matches last season.

Suffice it to say, Lyon is absolutely on fire at the moment, as it has been almost three months since the last time it was beaten in league play. It has also won six of its last seven matches, showing no signs of slowing down.

Karl Toko Ekambi and Memphis Depay have been lethal duo up front, combining for 13 goals and seven assists. They are averaging 1.29 xG per 90 minutes combined for the season. Needless to say, they’re going to be a problem for a PSG defense that has been leaking goals as of late.

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Betting Analysis & Pick

This is a meeting between two of the highest scoring teams in France, so I think we’ll see plenty of goals in this fixture.

Lyon has been completely revitalized from last season, scoring at a ridiculous rate. Meanwhile, PSG’s offense is humming on all cylinders with Neymar and Mbappe back in the mix.

Therefore, I think there is good value on the total over 3.5 goals in this marquee showdown.

Pick: Total Over 3.5 Goals (+102)