Matthew Peters/Manchester United via Getty Images. Pictured: Paul Pogba.
Leicester City vs. Manchester United Odds
| Leicester City Odds | +200 |
| Manchester United Odds | +135 |
| Draw | +240 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-125 / -105) |
| Day | Time | Sunday | 1 p.m. ET |
| How To Watch | ESPN+ |
| Odds as of Saturday afternoon and via BetMGM. | |
Nos. 2 and 3 in the Premier League table face off in the FA Cup on Sunday, as Leicester City looks to win some more silverware while Manchester United hope to continue a strong run of results.
The Foxes have thrived in the Premier League this season under Brendan Rodgers and hope to return to the Champions League next season. After blowing their top-four spot late last season, the Foxes are eight points ahead of West Ham entering Sunday, although the Hammers have a game in hand that they’ll play earlier in the day against Arsenal.
Let’s dig into both teams and see where the betting value lies.
Leicester City
There are two versions of Leicester City. There’s the team with midfielder James Maddison and the one without it.
The Leicester team without Maddison plays with three center backs and is focused on beating opponents on the counter attack. With Maddison controlling the game from the center of the pitch, Leicester plays with more possession and looks to break down opponents.
Maddison has been out since Feb. 21 against Aston Villa because of injury and will miss this matchup. The hope is he’ll be back after the international break.
Fortunately for Leicester, they’re coming off an impressive 5-0 victory over Sheffield United, although no one has had too much trouble with the Blades this season. Sheffield United are going to be relegated and were no match for Leicester. The Foxes won the expected-goals (xG), 4.55-0.09, according to Understat.
Against United, Leicester will likely continue to play with three center backs and fullbacks Ricardo Pereira and Timothy Castagne bursting down the wings. Jamie Vardy and Kelechi Iheacnacho will be fed with hopes of getting in behind United’s defense on the break.
Manchester United
Manchester United have been pretty bland over their last seven matches, of which they’ve drawn four. Their last four games, though, have featured some very impressive results.
According to FBref.com, United have registered more than 1.00 xG just three times in their last seven. After three straight 0-0 draws against Real Sociedad in the Europa League and Chelsea and Crystal Palace in the Premier League, United beat Manchester City and drew AC Milan in Europe before getting a pair of 1-0 wins over West Ham and Milan.
The win over Milan was inspired by the halftime introduction of Paul Pogba and a lackluster attack from the Italian side. Pogba scored three minutes into the second half, and Milan didn’t create much to really threaten the Red Devils the rest of the way.
Manager Ole Gunnar Solskjaer was noncommittal on whether Pogba would start this match after a stellar 45-minute cameo in Milan. Solskjaer also said Marcus Rashford would likely miss the match after being taken off in Pogba’s place on Thursday, although he hoped to have Edinson Cavani and Anthony Martial available for selection.
Betting Analysis & Pick
For me, this comes down to team selection. If none of Cavani, Martial and Pogba start the match, United will be relying on Bruno Fernandes to feed Mason Greenwood and Daniel James going forward. That is incredibly uninspiring against a Leicester team that thrives on the counter, especially with Vardy.
Given the lack of fitness going forward for United and Leicester’s preference to play on the counter, the total is the best way to go in what has all the ingredients to be a 1-0 win for either side.
Also, the under has been popular in the FA Cup since the start of Round 5. Since then, seven of 10 cup fixtures entering Sunday have gone under 2.5 goals, including a pair of 1-0 wins for Leicester and United in the previous round.
The best odds for under 2.5 goals can be found at BetMGM at -105. We’ll back a tense cup tie between two sides that will be missing key attacking talent from the start.
Pick: Under 2.5 goals -105
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