Claudio Villa/getty Images. Pictured: Italy stars Lorenzo Insigne, left, and Ciro Immobile.
We close out Group A affairs Sunday, with just two Euro 2020 matches taking place as things heat up across the continent heading into the knockout round.
Group leader Italy takes on Wales in the highlighted meeting, with Azzurri looking to lock up first place entering Round of 16 action. The other fixture pits Switzerland against Turkey at Baku Olympic Stadium in Azerbaijan.
Our Action Network soccer analysts have you covered when it comes to your tournament needs, providing game previews, in-depth analysis and selections.
Handicappers Anthony Dabbundo, Jeremy Pond and BJ Cunningham give your their best bets from the two contests.
That said, let’s take a look at their favorite picks on the schedule.
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Sunday’s Best Bets
| ANALYST | PICK | ODDS | BEST BOOK |
|---|---|---|
| Anthony Dabbundo | Italy 1H ML (+110) | DraftKings |
| Jeremy Pond | Italy -1 (-114) vs. Wales | DraftKings |
| BJ Cunningham | Switzerland vs. Turkey Under 2.5 (+108) | DraftKings |
Odds as of Saturday afternoon.
Anthony Dabbundo: Italy 1H Moneyline (+110) vs. Wales
- Odds available at DraftKings
Italy has been one of the most impressive teams in the group stage thus far, dominating Turkey and Switzerland with back-to-back 3-0 wins. Neither side generated a single big-scoring chance against the Italians, while manager Roberto Mancini’s dominant group has totaled 1.7 and 1.8 expected goals in each match, respectively.
There’s a bit of game theory in this last match, because Italy only needs a draw to win the group and Wales has all but secured second in the foursome, as long as it avoids losing by a large number of goals. For that reason, we could see some second-half rotation of both sides for that reason.
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However, Italy should be able to poke holes in this Wales defense in the first half and keep enough possession to prevent Gareth Bale and Aaron Ramsey from getting on the ball with time and space to do damage.
Switzerland was able to do this to Wales, and I’m expecting another dominant first half from the Italians before Mancini takes his foot off the gas to prepare for the knockout round.
I don’t trust Italy to get the margin, but do like the nation in the first half at plus money or better.
Jeremy Pond: Italy -1 (-114) vs. Wales
- Odds available at DraftKings
The Italians would love to lock up Group A with a victory over the Welsh in front of their fans at Stadio Olimpico in Rome. Needless to say, I think they’ll be able to make it happen.
Having watched pretty much every match in this tournament so far, I have Italy sitting in my top four in terms of which nation has looked the best. Azzurri is dangerous up top with Ciro Immobile and Lorenzo Insigne leading the line, plus they have a stingy defense that has yet to concede a goal through two games.
I love the pick my colleague, Anthony, has dished out above and think Italy will try to put this match to bed before halftime. That way, with a 1-0 or 2-0 lead, manager Roberto Mancini might be able to give Immobile and others a rest to keep them fresh for the Italians’ Round of 16 contest.
Back Italy to cover -1 at -114 odds via DraftKings and enjoy the show.
BJ Cunningham: Switzerland vs. Turkey — Under 2.5 Goals (+108)
- Odds available at DraftKings
Turkey has gotten pinned in both games and have no route out of it. Even on the counterattack its progression up the field is so slow it’s just throwing long balls up to a 35-year-old Burak Yılmaz and asking him to dribble half the length of the field without anyone within 20 yards of him to help.
And guess what? The Turks are probably going to fall into the same trap against Switzerland, which means getting pinned in for 75 minutes.
Even though Switzerland looked terrible against Italy, I think this game will be a mirror image of what the first 60 minutes of Switzerland vs. Wales looked like when the Swiss had 60% of their touches come in Wales’ half of the field.
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Even though Turkey needs to win by a lot to stay alive in this tournament, it’s not a team that’s built to play from behind.
So, I’ll be honest. I think we have an inflated total here due to both teams needing to win, but I also believe Switzerland potentially really only needs a win to move onto the knockout stage. That said, I could see a scenario where the Swiss are content with a 1-0 or 2-0 lead.
I only have 2.15 goals projected for this game, so just out of principle I’m going to take the total under 2.5 goals and would play it up to -110 odds.
