Tom Flathers/Manchester City FC via Getty Images. Pictured: Manager Pep Guardiola of Manchester City.
Manchester City vs. Spurs Odds
| Manchester City Odds | -200 |
| Spurs Odds | +490 |
| Draw | +360 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-129 / +104) |
| Day | Time | Sunday | 11:30 a.m. ET |
| How To Watch | ESPN+ |
| Odds updated Saturday afternoon via DraftKings. | |
Saying Manchester City has owned the EFL Cup as of late would be the true definition of a gross understatement.
The Premier League giant, which is favored to win this season’s Champions League, has not lost match in the competition — formally known as the Carabao Cup — since October 2016 and has raised the trophy three consecutive years.
Now, manager Pep Guardiola and his global juggernaut will go after an impressive four-peat Sunday when they square off against Tottenham Hotspur on the hallowed grounds at Wembley Stadium. There is slated to be 8,000 fans in attendance, which will hopefully create a more game-like atmosphere.
What’s kind of surprising is the fact Manchester City has had the worst of it between these sides as of late, earning just one win in the last four meetings. However, the Cityzens rolled to a 3-0 rout against Spurs — who haven’t won’t a trophy in more than a decade — when they met in February at Etihad Stadium.
Let’s take a look at these sides and see what could be on deck.
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Manchester City
It has been quite a season for the Cityzens, who were chasing the rare quadruple before those dreams were squashed via a 1-0 loss to Chelsea in an FA Cup semifinal-round match last week at Wembley.
Now, Manchester City shifts it attention to a slightly smaller conquest and that’s achieving the title triple by winning this competition, plus the Premier League and Champions League hardware. The Cityzens got to this point of the tournament with a 2-0 win over Manchester United on Jan. 6 at Old Trafford.
It will be interesting to see how Guardiola approaches this match in terms of what lineup he trucks out there against Spurs. Manchester City has a massive opening-leg tie with French powerhouse Paris Saint-Germain on Wednesday, so you’d have to assume some regulars will be rested ahead of what’s clearly the more important of the two fixtures.
One might think the abundance of games and pressure of UCL action could be catching up to the Cityzens on the domestic front, due to the fact they suffered that loss to Chelsea and a stunning 2-1 defeat against Leeds United in a contest where the Peacocks only had two shots on goal.
Spurs
Talk about a rollercoaster of a season for the north London outfit.
José Mourinho was recently sacked, only to be replaced by former player Ryan Mason. Tottenham was in prime position to finish top four in England’s top flight, only to come crashing down during a brutal patch between late January and early February that saw it lose five of six in league play.
Now, the club is sitting in sixth place in the standings and two points behind Chelsea and West Ham United in the chase for that coveted fourth and final UCL berth. Leicester City is six points clear of Tottenham, making it extremely unlikely it could finish any better than that fourth spot.
Spurs, which reached the EFL championship with a 2-0 win over Championship side Brentford, could be without the services of star Harry Kane. The Tottenham talisman picked up a knock in a 2-2 draw with Everton after scoring both goals in the affair. My guess is he will dress, but I’m not sure what Mason and Spurs are going to get out of their leading scorer.
Betting Analysis & Pick
I have no doubt Manchester City is going to win this match. Guardiola’s side is stronger in all areas on the pitch and just downright better overall. And no questions asked, this is the best club team on the planet.
However, I find little value playing the Cityzens at -200 odds when facing a team with nothing to lose like underdog Spurs. My guess is that number floats more north prior to kickoff, making it even more unplayable. So, for that reason I’m looking elsewhere.
I am backing the total to go over 2.5 goals at fair -129 odds via DraftKings as my top pick. Personally, I can’t see Manchester City not hitting for two goals on its own — perhaps even three — and potentially getting to the number on its own if this match opens up like I think will happen.
What gives me confidence in this total cashing is the fact Tottenham can score goals even if Kane isn’t going to be at full fitness or simply can’t go. Facts are facts, folks, and Spurs don’t get shut out often. They’ve scored at least one goal in 13 of their 14 last matches and across all competitions, including two goals in four of their last five games.
Going with that approach has also led me to playing both teams to score at -108 odds as well. Son Heung-min and Gareth Bale have more than enough around them to snatch a goal in a situation where I expect Tottenham to be chasing the game following an early Manchester City goal.
Pick: Total Over 2.5 Goals (-129) | Both Teams To Score — Yes (-108)
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