South Dakota State vs. Sam Houston State Odds, Pick & Prediction: How to Bet Sunday’s FCS Championship

Hannah Foslien/Getty Images. Pictured: The South Dakota State Jackrabbits.

South Dakota State vs. Sam Houston State Odds

South Dakota State Odds -6
Sam Houston State Odds +6
Moneyline -230 / +170
Over/Under 47.5
Time Sunday, 2 p.m. ET
TV ABC
Odds as of Saturday afternoon and via DraftKings.

The first College Football Playoff National Championship game was first played after the 2014 season. In the wake of the BCS era, FBS has managed to pair its top two seeds in the championship game just twice. This year, FCS will pit its top two seeds from the playoffs against each other for the third time in the past four seasons.

South Dakota State, the top overall seed, will play in its first-ever national title game after nine consecutive trips to the FCS Playoffs.

Sam Houston State, which has not lost a game since November 2019, will make its third attempt at winning the FCS Division I-AA Championship.

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South Dakota State Jackrabbits

The headlining act of this National Championship game will be the Jackrabbits’ offensive line against the Bearkats’ defensive line.

South Dakota State averages more than 230 yards rushing per game with a top-five ranking in yards per rush in 2021. Sam Houston State, meanwhile, sits fifth defensively in yards per rush, limiting both James Madison and North Dakota State to 3.2 yards per carry.

When the Bearkats get opponents in passing downs, defensive coordinator Clayton Carlin drops seven into coverage thanks to an aggressive defensive line.

To avoid the speed of the defensive line, the Jacks will rely on quarterback Mark Gronowski’s quick-strike ability. Head coach John Stiegelmeier, serving in this role since 1997, has no issues confusing defenses that specialize in pressure.

Most any highlight of Gronowski is off of a wildcat or RPO keeper, which may be the equalizer against Sam Houston State. The freshman and MVFC Player of the Year must play a clean game to win the national title against a Bearkats team that picked off James Madison to start the fourth quarter of the semifinals.

That is no easy task for the Jacks, as Sam Houston State ranks fourth in defensive Havoc, a statistic that looks at tackles for loss, forced fumbles and passes defended.

Click here to view offensive and defensive team stats for this matchup.
Team Stat SDSU Offense SHSU Defense Advantage
Points per Game 22 11 SHSU
Plays per Game 75 88 SDSU
Yards per Play 27 24 Draw
Points per Play 56 6 SHSU
First-Down Rate 76 30 SHSU
Red-Zone Scoring Rate 23 22 Draw
Pass Completion % 50 38 SHSU
Yards per Pass 94 42 SHSU
INT Rate 65 87 SDSU
Yards per Rush 4 4 Draw
Havoc 25 4 SHSU
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Sam Houston State Bearkats

To match a flashy defensive line, the Bearkats have a stable of wide receivers who can score on any down and distance.

Ranking third in points per game, Sam Houston State has many of the same characteristics as the Houston Cougars. The Bearkats are highly explosive but lack efficiency with a rank of ninth in First Down Rate.

Click here to view offensive and defensive team stats for this matchup.
Team Stat SHSU Offense SDSU Defense Advantage
Points per Game 3 9 SHSU
Plays per Game 17 18 Draw
Yards per Play 27 18 SDSU
Points per Play 56 11 SDSU
First-Down Rate 95 13 SDSU
Red-Zone Scoring Rate 81 18 SDSU
Pass Completion % 25 48 SHSU
Yards per Pass 65 12 SDSU
INT Rate 8 4 Draw
Yards per Rush 16 32 SHSU
Havoc 41 60 SHSU

What Sam Houston State lacks in Success Rate is more than made up in explosiveness. Quarterback Eric Schmid is third in FCS in passing yards per completion with wide receiver Jequez Ezzard leading the way.

The biggest issue with the South Dakota State defense may be the middle. The linebacker unit was built to stop the rush, but it may be a liability in coverage.

Its quarterfinal victory over Southern Illinois was more of a survival against a Saluki offense that attacked the linebacker unit. South Dakota State survived a Southern Illinois second half that saw two interceptions and a 17-play drive that ended with no points. That defensive efficiency will be needed against Sam Houston State, which overcame a 17-point second-half deficit to No. 3 seed James Madison.

Betting Analysis & Pick

The Jacks have been on the cusp of breaking through for a National Championship for a number of years.

South Dakota State boat-raced Delaware and Holy Cross through these playoffs, but the Southern Illinois quarterfinal deserves further inspection. Dig routes to the middle and single coverage out routes to the end zone led a Saluki attack that focused on the area between the hashes. Southern Illinois had three turnovers and a turnover on downs to lose after leading, 20-7.

Sam Houston State can not only attack the middle of the field on offense, but the Bearkats also boast the athletes to score on special teams. Ezzard is one of the most explosive pieces in the nation on offense, and the senior leads the nation in punt return yards as well.

The Bearkats outrank the Jacks in plenty of categories from quarterback RPO Success Rate to defensive Havoc. Because of the offensive inefficiency and two red-zone defenses that rank top-25, the under is suggested through 45.

Because of the explosiveness on offense and game-changing defensive line, Sam Houston State is the play to pick up its first FCS Championship.

Pick: Sam Houston State +4.5 (Play to +4) | Under 45 or better.

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