Nicolò Campo/LightRocket via Getty Images. Pictured: Juventus star Cristiano Ronaldo.
Juventus vs. Lazio Odds
| Juventus Odds | -115 |
| Lazio Odds | +310 |
| Draw | +265 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-148 / +118) |
| Day | Time | Saturday | 2:45 p.m. ET |
| How To Watch | ESPN+ |
| Odds as of Friday evening via DraftKings. | |
The Serie A game of the weekend arrives Sunday when seventh-place Lazio visits Turin to take on fourth-place Juventus.
Six points separate these two sides in the table, but in this case the standings are lying about the true difference in quality between these clubs. Lazio’s recent good, yet misleading, run of form creates betting value on the hosts to take all three points from this match.
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Juventus
Based on expected goals, the Black and Whites’ form in 2020-21 is actually better than the last two seasons. The results just aren’t following along this campaign, with Inter Milan likely to win the league title because it’s getting both the performances and results.
However, Juventus’ underlying numbers don’t fit the current narrative of a team that’s about to not win the Serie A title for the first time since 2011.
Juventus’ +1.04 xGD per 90 is second best in the league, a few ticks behind Inter. Andrea Pirlo’s side has dramatically improved defensively, as it’s mid-table in shots allowed, but yields the lowest xG per shot in the league.
Because they don’t allow big scoring chances, the Black and Whites force opponents to come up with excellent finishing to convert chances and score goals on them. Juventus’ opponents have the longest attempted shot distance in the league, plus it’s also allowing the fewest shots on target in the division.
Add in above average goalkeeper play and Juventus has been very hard to break down. Given Lazio’s attacking metrics, it will be very difficult for the visitors to get in behind and create big chances.
Lazio
My numbers and the market consistently disagree on how good Lazio really is, and I consistently end up betting against the club because of this reason.
The White and Sky Blues had won six league matches in a row before a 3-1 setback against Inter Milan on Valentine’s Day. Lazio then lost to Bayern Munich in Champions League action, plus it suffered a 2-0 defeat to Bologna last weekend. The White and Sky Blues’ six-match winning run was always a bit fortunate based on expected goals, and it’s no surprise to see them regress again.
Lazio’s attacking numbers are very mediocre, and not great to get at this Juventus team. It’s shot distance and xG per shot are in the bottom half of the league. In the reverse fixture earlier in the season, Lazio trailed for 75 minutes and still only created 0.9 xG before Felipe Caciedo found an equalizer in the 95th minute.
Lazio ran hot on penalties last season and mounted a weak title challenge to Juventus, but its xGD per 90 numbers this year are tied for seventh at +0.14, which is a significant dropoff between the league’s top six clubs.
Betting Analysis & Picks
My number for this match is Juventus on the moneyline at -175, and I show a ton of value on the host to move into third place with a win to push closer to Inter Milan for the title.
While these teams are six points apart in the standings, the Understat expected-points table suggests they should be more like 17 points apart.
Pick: Juventus ML (-115)
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