Laurence Griffiths/PA Images via Getty Images. Pictured: Wolverhampton Wanderers goalkeeper Rui Patricio.
Wolves vs. Sheffield United Odds
| Wolves Odds | -150 |
| Sheffield United Odds | +500 |
| Draw | +255 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (+133 / -167) |
| Day | Time | Saturday | 3:15 p.m. ET |
| How To Watch | Peacock Premium |
| Odds as of Friday afternoon via DraftKings | |
The last of the three Premier League matches on Saturday is another one of those late-season affairs that doesn’t matter very much, in terms of the table.
Wolves are currently in 12th place with 38 points — 12 points above 18th-place Fulham with seven matches remaining, so not in danger of relegation.
Sheffield United, on the other hand, are all but officially relegated already — in last place with 14 points, 10 fewer than any other team in the league.
Here’s a closer look at these two clubs, followed by a pick for this match.
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Wolves
Wolves are coming off a dramatic 1-0 victory over Fulham last Friday, thanks to Adama Traore’s goal in the 92nd minute. It was Traore’s long-awaited first goal of the season.
But this wasn’t an impressive performance by his team. Fulham outshot Wolves 14-7, and topped them in terms of xG (expected goals) 0.9 to 0.4, according to FBRef.
What’s more, Wolves were winless in their previous five matches — three losses and two draws. Although they did outshoot fourth-place West Ham 20-9 in the match immediately preceding the Fulham game, losing 3-2.
Wolves are about where they should be, in terms of the underlying numbers. Their xG differential on the season is -3.1, which ranks them 11th in the league.
Their biggest problem this season has been scoring. Wolves have just 31 goals in 31 matches — only four teams have scored fewer. They’ve desperately missed Raul Jimenez, who scored 17 goals for them last season, but has been out since late November due to a skull fracture.
Sheffield United
Sheffield United are one of the four teams that have scored fewer goals than Wolves, and it’s a lot fewer. They have just 17 in 31 matches, seven fewer than any other team in the league.
Sheffield also have a league-low four wins, and just two draws. That means they’ve lost 25 of their 31 matches so far.
Their current losing streak stands at five games in a row, if you include their 2-0 FA Cup quarterfinal defeat to Chelsea on March 21. Sheffield United’s most recent match was a 3-0 loss at home to Arsenal last Sunday, in which they were outshot 14-7, and fell well short in terms of xG, by 2.2 to 0.5.
This will be little solace to Sheffield United’s supporters, but they’re actually not the worst team in the league according to the underlying numbers. They only have the second-worst xG differential in the league at -25.0, putting them above West Brom (-27.1).
Betting Analysis & Pick
These teams met in their very first match of the season, way back on Sept. 14. Wolves won 2-0, with one of the goals being scored by Jimenez. They outshot Sheffield United 11-9, and topped them in xG by 1.1 to 0.6.
Sheffield United have scored just one goal in their past five matches, and two in their past nine. I’d bet that they don’t score the second time around against Wolves, either.
But I’d also make a smaller play on this winding up a scoreless draw. Wolves are still missing Jimenez, and now they are without Pedro Neto and Ruben Neves, too. Neto suffered a season-ending knee injury against Fulham, and Neves has tested positive for COVID-19.
Neto and Neves were Wolves’ leading scorers this season, with five goals apiece, and Neto also led the team with six assists.
This was already a matchup featuring two of the five lowest-scoring teams in the league, even before you take into account all the missing players.
Pick: Sheffield United under 0.5 (-106) | Correct score 0-0 (+700)
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