Robbie Jay Barratt – AMA/Getty Images. Pictured: Pedro Neto.
Newcastle vs. Wolves Odds
| Newcastle Odds | +245 |
| Wolves Odds | +133 |
| Draw | +205 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (+138 / -175) |
| Day | Time | Saturday | 3 p.m. ET |
| TV | Peacock Premium |
| Odds as of Friday afternoon and via DraftKings. | |
The final of four Premier League matches on Saturday features 17th place Newcastle hosting 12th place Wolves. Not exactly must-see TV, but betting always makes things more interesting, doesn’t it?
Here’s a closer look at the two clubs, followed by a prediction.
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Newcastle
Newcastle are right smack in the middle of a relegation battle due to their poor recent form, combined with an uptick by 18th-place Fulham. There’s just a three-point gap between the two clubs now, with Newcastle on 25 points after 25 matches, and Fulham on 22.
The Magpies are coming off back-to-back losses, to Manchester United (3-1) last Sunday and Chelsea (2-0) the week before. Going back to the beginning of January, Newcastle have two wins and eight defeats in their past 10 league matches.
Of particular concern is the continued absence of forward Callum Wilson, Newcastle’s leader in both goals (10) and assists (five). Miguel Almiron is next on the scoring chart with four goals, and no one else has more than two.
Even having Wilson available for most of the season, Newcastle have been one of the weakest teams in the league offensively, with 26 goals in 25 games. And they’ve overachieved compared to their xG (expected goal) total of 23.4 (according to FBref.com).
Wolves
Wolves don’t have to worry about relegation with 33 points, eight ahead of Newcastle. But it’s still been a disappointing season, given Wolves have finished seventh in each of the past two campaigns.
They’ve desperately missed forward Raul Jimenez, who had 17 goals and six assists last season, preceded by 13 goals and seven assists the year before. Jimenez has been out since late November after suffering a fractured skull against Arsenal.
But things are looking up for Wolves, and not just because of this:
Wolves head coach Nuno Espirito Santo says he is "totally confident" striker Raul Jimenez will be able to play again this season after fracturing his skull in November.
— Sky Sports News (@SkySportsNews) February 26, 2021
Wolves have also now taken three wins and a draw from their past four league matches, including back-to-back victories over Leeds (1-0) last week and Southampton (2-1) the week before.
Betting Analysis & Picks
I don’t expect many goals in this one. Wolves aren’t prolific, either. They, like Newcastle, have scored just 26 goals in 25 matches — on exactly 26.0 xG according to FBref, how about that!
These teams played a 1-1 draw back in late October at Molineux — a match that featured a paltry combined xG total of 0.9, despite the fact that both Jimenez and Wilson were on the field!
But -175 for under 2.5 goals? Yuck. Instead, I’ll go another route. Wolves are much more solid defensively, having conceded 32 goals — 11 fewer than Newcastle, and only three in their past six matches combined. I think their good run of form will continue at St. James’ Park.
Pick: Wolves (+133)
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