Saturday Premier League Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: Newcastle United vs. West Ham United (April 17)

Justin Setterfield/Getty Images. Pictured: Jarod Bowen of West Hame celebrates.

Newcastle vs. West Ham Odds

Newcastle Odds +280
West Ham Odds +240
Draw +104
Over/Under 2.5 (-105 / -120)
Day | Time Saturday | 7:30 a.m. ET
TV NBCSN
Odds as of Friday afternoon via DraftKings.

West Ham looks to move up into third place in the Premier League table when they travel to St. James’ Park to battle 17th-place Newcastle.

Newcastle are sitting just six point above the drop zone, but were able to get their first win in over two months last weekend beating Burnley 2-1. The Magpies are finally starting to get healthy on offense with Allan Saint-Maximum and Callum Wilson returning to the lineup.

Newcastle desperately need more points to secure their spot in the Premier League next season.

West Ham is having an absolute dream of a season, currently sitting inside the top four and have Champions League football on their horizon. Jesse Lindgard has been an absolute sensation since joining the club on loan in January, scoring eight goals and providing three assists in only nine appearances. The Hammers cannot afford to slip up in this match with both Chelsea, Liverpool, and Tottenham hot on their heels for the last Champions League spot in the table.

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Newcastle

The Magpies are finally starting to show some life towards the end of the season, as some of their key attackers are starting to get healthy. Allan Saint-Maximum and Callum Wilson will likely finally be on the field together for the first time in over a month, which will be huge for Newcastle since they combine to create 0.69 xG per 90 minutes. Newcastle created 4.07 xG against Tottenham two weeks ago and created 1.44 xG against Burnley last weekend, so things are starting to trend upwards for the Magpies offensively.

However, they’ve been dreadful defensively all season long, allowing 1.54 xG per match, which is fourth highest in the Premier League. They’ve really struggled holding the top seven teams in the Premier League in check, allowing 20.76xG in only then matches.

Additionally, Newcastle are going to be without starting centerbacks Jamaal Lascelles and Fabian Schär, so I think West Ham’s offense should be able to run rampant through the middle of the pitch.

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West Ham

The Hammers offense has been destroying opposing defenses for over two months now. In their last then matches, West Ham has scored a whopping 20 goals and are averaging 1.61 xG per match. Jesse Lingard is going to be up there as the signing of the season, because the Manchester United loanee is averaging 0.44 xG and 0.18 xAssists per 90 minutes in his nine appearances for the club.

However, the Hammers defense has been a bit shaky recently, as the injuries on their backline are starting to mount. Starting centerback Angelo Ogbonna, starting leftback Aaron Cresswell, and starting central midfielder Declan Rice are all going to miss this match due to injury. The loss of Rice and Ogbonna has been heavily felt the last two matches, as West Ham has allowed a total of 3.58 xG to Wolves and Leicester.

The Hammers defense allows 1.23 xG per match, but that number likely goes up without three of their starting defenders. Therefore, I think Newcastle should be able to create more chances than expected in this match.

Betting Analysis & Pick

If the last few matches from theses two teams are any indication, this is going to be a high-scoring affair. Additionally, with all of the injuries to both defenses, it will open up a ton of opportunities for two red hot offenses to create a ton of chances.

Since I have 2.75 goals projected for this match, I think there is some value on Over 2.5 goals at -105 odds (DraftKings).

Pick: Over 2.5 goals (-105)

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