Saturday Premier League Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: Newcastle United vs. Fulham (Dec. 19)

Newcastle vs. Fulham Odds

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Clubs still trying to find their Premier League identities go at it Saturday when Newcastle United entertains Fulham in a huge match at St. James’ Park.

The Magpies enter this contest off a midweek 5-2 shellacking against Leeds United at Elland Road. The Peacocks erupted for four second-half goals to bag all three points and snap Newcastle’s two-game winning streak in the process.

On the other side, the Cottagers settled for a scoreless draw against Aston Villa in their most recent outing. Picking up a win would have been huge for Fulham, which is stuck in 18th place in the table on just nine points.

A victory here would go a long way for both sides, so expect a hotly contested match from the opening whistle.

Let’s take a look at these clubs and see what might be on deck for this contest.

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Newcastle

The Magpies are really hard to get a read on this season in England’s top flight.

Newcastle put together back-to-back wins against Crystal Palace (2-0) and West Bromwich Albion (2-1), which had some thinking it could go on a bit of a run in league play. Unfortunately, the Magpies came crashing back to reality after that dismal performance against Leeds.

Callum Wilson has led the Newcastle line, scoring a team-high seven goals this season. That total accounts for a third of the Magpies’ offense, which has amassed 21 goals through 12 fixtures.

When it comes to statistical data, Newcastle has put together some pretty subpar numbers. The Magpies sit on a brutal 12.8 expected goals and 17.1 expected goals against, resulting in a lowly -4.3 xGDiff and -0.36 for xGDiff/90 minutes.

Newcastle’s xG is ranked 17th out of the 20 teams, with just Wolves (12.5 xG), Burnley (9.5 xG) and West Bromwich Albion (8.4 xG) below it on the table.

Fulham

Although the results show otherwise, the Cottagers are playing much better than what their record tells us at the moment.

Yes, Fulham has just two wins in 13 matches this season. And yes, the Cottagers have either drawn or lost 23 of their last 25 away league matches. However, things are not as bleak as they sound.

Manager Scott Parker and his team have gone unbeaten in three of their last four outings, highlighted by a 2-1 win over powerful Leicester City and a 1-1 stalemate with defending champion Liverpool at Craven Cottage.

As for Fulham’s advanced metrics, the outfit’s numbers reflect a team stuck smack dab in the middle of a relegation fight.

The Cottagers have generated a lowly 15.1 xGs and awful 20.2 expected goals against, resulting in a -5.1 xGDiff and -0.39 for xGDiff/90 minutes. Their xGA rank 17th out of 20 teams, with Sheffield United (21 xGA), Leeds United (23.3 xGA) and West Brom (23.9 xGA) tucked behind them in the category.

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Betting Analysis & Picks

I really like Fulham to get something out of this showdown with Newcastle.

The Cottagers have been playing a better brand of football as of late, which has me believing they can work their way out of the drop zone in a timely fashion. I thought they played well in that scoreless draw at Villa Park, which is something they can build in this Tyneside affair.

Add in the fact Newcastle just got physically worked and run out of Elland Road in that blowout defeat, and you have a host side in trouble on short rest.

That said, I will back Fulham to scratch out a result and will back it on the alternative number of +0.25 at a fair price. The Cottagers are dangerous (as crazy as that might sound) at the moment, giving me confidence in the play.

I will also sprinkle a little on the total staying under the number as well. There have been less than three goals in Fulham’s last three matches, so I like my chances of a low-scoring confrontation.

Picks: Fulham +0.25 (-143) | Total Under 2.5 Goals (-139)