Victoria Haydn/Manchester City FC via Getty Images. Pictured: Ilkay Gundogan, Phil Foden
Fulham vs. Manchester City Odds
| Fulham Odds | +900 |
| Manchester City Odds | -295 |
| Draw | +390 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-132 / +106) |
| Day | Time | Saturday | 3 p.m. ET |
| How To Watch | Peacock Premium |
| Odds as of Friday afternoon via DraftKings. | |
The fourth and final Premier League match on Saturday pits the league leaders, Manchester City, against 18th-place Fulham. But Fulham’s improved form of late makes this a more interesting game than you might think.
Let’s take a closer look at the two clubs, followed by a prediction.
Fulham
Fulham are still in the relegation zone, but only via goal difference. With 26 points, they are now level with 17th-place Brighton, and just one point behind 16th-place Newcastle.
Their 1-0 win at Liverpool last Sunday was a huge boost in their campaign to stay in the top flight. And it was no fluke — Liverpool did outshoot Fulham 16-10, but Fulham edged it in terms of xG (expected goals) 1.2 to 1.0, according to FBRef.com.
Fulham have picked up points in six of their past seven matches, with three wins and three draws. They’ve also beaten Everton (2-0) and Sheffield United (1-0), while finishing all square with West Ham (0-0), Burnley (1-1) and Crystal Palace (0-0). Their only loss over this stretch was a narrow 1-0 defeat to Tottenham Hotspur.
Fulham have scored just 22 goals in 28 matches, but they have an xG total of 31.3. In terms of xG differential, they would be well above the relegation zone — in 13th place at -4.9, ahead of Everton among others.
Manchester City
It’s only a matter of time before Manchester City are crowned champions. With nine matches left to play, they have 68 points, and a 14-point lead on second-place Manchester United (although the latter do have a game in hand).
Their 21-match winning streak did finally come to an end last Sunday against their neighbors referenced above, losing 2-0. But Man City bounced back in a big way against Southampton on Wednesday, winning 5-2.
Manchester City are truly a class above everyone else this season. They have 61 goals scored, six more than any other team. And they have 21 goals conceded, four fewer than anybody else.
The underlying numbers tell a similar story. Man City’s xG differential is +32.5 — Chelsea is second, but well behind at +20.5.
Betting Analysis & Picks
Manchester City won the first meeting back in early December, 2-0. But the xG margin was even more lopsided, 3.0 to 0.2.
Yes, Fulham’s form is much improved. But Man City weren’t clicking on all cylinders back then, either. That was their 10th league match of the season, and they’d dropped points in five of the first nine.
Man City do have a Champions League match on Tuesday against Borussia Monchengladbach. But they have a 2-0 lead from the first leg, and their squad is so deep that rotation doesn’t really scare me, anyway.
This is the best team in the Premier League by far, against a team trying to stave off relegation. And nine of Man City’s past 12 league victories have come by more than one goal. They should make it 10 out of 13 on Saturday.
Pick: Manchester City -1.5 (+106)
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