Saturday Premier League Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: Everton vs. Burnley (March 13)

Everton vs. Burnley Odds

Two clubs with very different fights on their hands will meet up in the third of four Premier League matches on Saturday.

Everton enter the weekend in sixth place with 46 points — two points below fifth-place West Ham, and one point above seventh-place Tottenham Hotspur. They are aiming to secure European football next season.

Burnley, on the other hand, are in 15th place with 30 points — four points above 18th-place Fulham — and are trying to avoid getting sucked into a relegation battle.

Here’s a closer look at the two clubs, followed by a prediction.

Everton

Everton are coming off a 2-0 loss at Chelsea on Monday. Chelsea’s goals weren’t particularly impressive — one was an own goal, the other a Jorginho penalty. But it was a dominant performance nonetheless. Chelsea had 65% possession, outshot Everton 18-7, and topped them in terms of xG (expected goals) 2.9 to 0.3 (according to FBRef.com).

There’s no shame in losing to Chelsea right now, though, given that they are still unbeaten since Thomas Tuchel took over as manager.

Prior to that match, Everton had reeled off three wins in a row, all of them coming with clean sheets: 2-0 at Liverpool, 1-0 vs. Southampton and 1-0 at West Brom.

Richarlison has been red-hot of late, scoring in four consecutive matches prior to the Chelsea defeat.

But Everton’s position in the table is arguably much higher than it should be. In terms of goal difference, they are 10th, at +4 — 39 goals scored, 35 goals conceded. And in terms of xG differential, they are even worse: 14th, at -5.5 — 31.9 xG scored, 37.4 xG conceded.

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Burnley

Burnley are coming off back-to-back 1-1 draws, both against pretty good opponents — last Saturday against Arsenal, and three days prior against Leicester City. In fact, five of their past seven league matches have finished honors even.

There were also draws against Brighton (1-1), Fulham (1-1) and West Brom (0-0). Also over that stretch Burnley beat Crystal Palace, 3-0, and lost to Spurs, 4-0.

It’s been a pretty good run of form for Burnley, who also were tops in xG in three of those five draws: 2.1 to 0.6 over Brighton, 1.4 to 0.5 over Fulham, 1.6 to 1.3 over Leicester. But overall, they are still one of the few teams below Everton in both goal difference and xG differential.

Burnley are 16th in goal difference at -16: 20 goals scored, 36 goals conceded. And they are 17th in xG differential at -15.7: 25.5 xG scored, 41.2 xG conceded.

Betting Analysis & Picks

Speaking of draws, the first match between these two clubs this season finished 1-1 back in early December.

As illustrated above, the performance gap between Everton and Burnley this isn’t nearly as wide as the table indicates. This is 14th vs. 17th in the league in terms of xG differential.

Everton haven’t been scoring many goals — in fact, they have just five in their past six matches. Burnley have scored just 20 goals in 28 matches — only last-place Sheffield United have scored fewer (16).

I foresee a tight, low-scoring affair that could go either way. I like Burnley’s chances of at least snagging a point, so I’ll go with the Double Chance.

Pick: Burnley or Tie (+100)

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