Andrew Couldridge/Getty Images. Pictured: Robert Sanchez of Brighton & Hove Albion celebrates victory with teammates.
Brighton vs. Newcastle Odds
| Brighton Odds | -150 |
| Newcastle Odds | +560 |
| Draw | +260 |
| Over/Under | 1.5 (+130/ -162) |
| Day | Time | Saturday | 4 p.m. ET |
| How To Watch | Peacock Premium |
| Odds as of Friday afternoon and via DraftKings. | |
There is only one Premier League match on Saturday, but it offers plenty of drama. Brighton and Newcastle are both fighting for their lives, in terms of remaining in the top flight next season.
Here’s a closer look at the two clubs, followed by a pick.
Brighton
Brighton entered Friday in 16th place with 29 points — three points ahead of 18th-place Fulham, and with a game in hand.
It’s been well documented by now, but Brighton have been one of the big stories of this Premier League season, because of their underperformance compared to the underlying numbers. In terms of xG (expected goal) differential, they are the fifth-best team in the league at +11.2, just barely behind Manchester United at +11.5 (according to FBRef.com). And yet, Manchester United are in second place, and Brighton are in 16th.
In part because of those underlying numbers, the chances of Brighton being relegated are still pretty low — 7%, according to FiveThirtyEight. But the pressure is still very much on with 10 league games left to play.
Brighton snapped a three-game losing streak and a six-match winless streak in all competitions last Sunday, winning 2-1 at Southampton. Ironically, it was a game in which they lost the xG battle, albeit barely, 1.0 to 0.9.
The underperformance has happened at both ends of the field for Brighton. They’ve scored just 29 goals, despite an xG total of 39.5. And they’ve conceded 36 goals, despite an xG conceded total of only 28.4.
Newcastle
Newcastle entered Friday in 17th place with 28 points — one point behind Brighton and two points ahead of Fulham, also with a game in hand on the latter.
But Newcastle aren’t nearly as good as Brighton in terms of the underlying numbers. They are 16th in the league in xG differential at -12.4 — not quite relegation-worthy, but not far off.
Unfortunately, two of the four teams below Newcastle in that category — Crystal Palace and Burnley — are significantly ahead of them in the table, by nine and five points respectively.
Fulham’s form and underlying numbers are better, too. Hence, FiveThirtyEight currently has Newcastle as the most-likely team to be relegated (along with Sheffield United and West Brom) at 45%, just ahead of Fulham at 41%.
Newcastle are winless in their past five matches, although they’re coming off three draws in a row: a 1-1 against Aston Villa last Friday, preceded by a 0-0 at West Brom and a 1-1 against Wolves.
They have scored one fewer goal than Brighton (28), but have conceded nine more (45). And they’ve sorely missed Callum Wilson and Miguel Almiron of late, among other injured players. Wilson (10 goals, 5 assists) and Almiron (4 goals, 1 assist) have scored 14 of their 28 league goals — no one else has scored more than two. Wilson is still out, but there’s a chance Almiron could return against Brighton.
🎙 Steve Bruce speaks to the media ahead of #BHANEW.
"We still think the international break is the right time for Callum Wilson. He's well into his rehabilitation and the same goes for Miguel Almirón. We'll see how he is. Miguel's got a chance [for tomorrow] – we'll see." pic.twitter.com/WmLkEPGTx0
— Newcastle United FC (@NUFC) March 19, 2021
Betting Analysis & Pick
Brighton won the first meeting, at Newcastle, 3-0, but that was way back in September. One of the goals came via a penalty kick, and Brighton’s xG total was just 1.6 including the penalty.
Of more interest is that Newcastle had just six shots, with none of them on target, for an xG total of 0.5 — and that was with Callum Wilson in the lineup.
It’s no coincidence that Newcastle’s current five-match winless streak has come since Wilson’s injury. They’ve scored just three goals in those five matches combined — one by Allan Saint-Maximin, who’s also now out, and two by center back Jamaal Lascelles.
I like Brighton’s chances of winning this match, and I like the chances of it staying under 2.5 goals, but I don’t like paying around -150 for either of those options. Instead, I’m turning to the team totals — I’ll go for a Brighton clean sheet at even money.
Pick: Newcastle under 0.5 (+100)
_BookPromo=49