ANDREW BOYERS/POOL/AFP via Getty Images. Pictured: Leandro Trossard, Pascal Gross
Brighton vs. Leicester City Odds
| Brighton Odds | +200 |
| Leicester City Odds | +150 |
| Draw | +225 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (+123 / -155) |
| Day | Time | Saturday | 3 p.m. ET |
| How To Watch | Peacock Premium |
| Odds as of Friday via Bet Rivers. | |
Brighton vs. Leicester City looks like a mismatch in terms of the table. The home team is in 16th place, while the away team is in third. But all is not as it seems.
Here’s a closer look at the two clubs, followed by a prediction.
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Brighton
The bad news, if you’re a Brighton fan, is that your team is now well and truly involved in a relegation battle — the Seagulls are just three points ahead of 18th place Fulham with 12 games remaining.
Brighton are winless in their past five matches in all competitions, including a 1-0 defeat at Leicester City in the FA Cup fifth round on Feb. 10. They’ve also lost their past two league matches: 1-0 to 19th place West Brom last Saturday, preceded by a 2-1 defeat to 13th place Crystal Palace the week before.
The final scores are misleading, however, in terms of the performances. Brighton topped West Brom 2.6 to 0.5 in terms of xG (expected goals) according to FBRef.com. That includes two penalty kicks, both of which obviously were missed.
The loss to Crystal Palace was even more unfortunate. Brighton outshot Palace 24-3, and topped them in xG by a final tally of 2.6 to 0.2.
For the season, Brighton have 37.7 xG, but have scored only 26 goals. And they have 26.3 xG conceded, but have given up 33 goals. In terms of xG differential, their mark of +11.4 is fourth-best in the league, behind only Manchester City (+31.7), Chelsea (+18.0) and Liverpool (+16.0).
That’s right — Brighton would hold a Champions League place, based on the underlying statistics.
Leicester City
On the flip side, Leicester City are rather fortunate in be where they are, in third place in the table. In terms of xG differential, the Foxes are eighth at +5.5, also trailing Manchester United (+10.3), Aston Villa (+6.5) and West Ham (+6.2).
Nevertheless, Leicester have a good chance of actually finishing in the top four and qualifying for the Champions League next season. They currently have 50 points — putting them just one point behind second-place Manchester United, and four points ahead of fifth-place Everton.
But Leicester haven’t had good results lately, either. They’re coming off a 1-1 draw at Burnley on Wednesday, preceded by a 3-1 loss to Arsenal last weekend. And just prior to that Leicester were knocked out of the Europa League after a 2-0 home defeat to Slavia Prague.
Injuries have been a big factor. James Maddison, who has eight goals and five assists in the league, missed all of those matches due to injury. Maddison won’t play against Brighton, either. And now Harvey Barnes (nine goals, four assists) is out, too.
Betting Analysis & Picks
When these teams met in the FA Cup last month, it was a scoreless stalemate until the 94th minute, before Kelechi Iheanacho finally broke the deadlock.
In their first league meeting back in mid-December, Leicester City won 3-0. But it was much closer in terms of xG, 1.7 to 1.1, and Maddison scored two of the three goals.
Brighton are at home this time around, are more well rested, and Leicester are missing two of their top three scorers. I’m going to trust the underlying numbers, which say that Brighton are more than due for a win.
Pick: Brighton +200
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