Shaun Botterill/Getty Images. Pictured: Harry Kane (left), Deli Alli (center), and Gareth Bale (right).
Leeds vs. Spurs Odds
| Leeds Odds | +240 |
| Spurs Odds | +102 |
| Draw | +285 |
| Over/Under | 3 (+104 / -125) |
| Day | Time | Saturday | 7:30 a.m. ET |
| TV | NBCSN |
| Odds updated Friday evening and via DraftKings. | |
Tottenham is in desperate need of three points to secure a Europa League spot when it travels to Elland Road on Saturday to take on Leeds.
Leeds is currently in a battle to finish in the top half of the Premier League table after a 2-0 defeat at Brighton last weekend.
Marcelo Bielsa’s side plays an incredibly exciting brand of soccer that lends itself to a ton of chances for both teams. Tottenham routed Leeds, 3-0, at White Hart Lane the last time these two met, so Leeds is going to have to play a much better match to get a result at home.
Tottenham is in a heated battle for the final Europa League spot.
It sits two points above Liverpool and four points above Everton, but both of those teams have a game in hand on Spurs.
It’s been an interesting season for Tottenham, which fell short in the Europa League, lost the League Cup final, and fired manager Jose Mourinho. Salvaging a Europa League spot is crucial for Spurs, so they need all three points on Saturday.
Leeds
Bielsa’s brand isn’t for the faint of heart.
Leeds plays essentially a full-court press at all times. Whenever the opposing team has the ball, the entire Leeds team presses forward in hopes of winning the ball and starting a counterattack. Leeds leads the Premier League in total pressures, but is third in pressure success rate, per fbref.com.
It sounds great on paper, but why more teams don’t employ this style of play is it often leaves teams exposed defensively. That’s shown in the underlying metrics, as Leeds allows the second-most xG in the Premier League at 1.71 per match.
While Leeds loves to press its opponent, it’ll have to deal with Tottenham trying to beat it at its own game because Spurs have the third-most pressures in the Premier League. Leeds doesn’t really handle pressure that well, so it may allow Spurs a couple of breakaway chances.
Spurs
Tottenham is vastly overrated, both offensively and defensively.
Spurs have scored 60 goals on the season but created only 49.76 xG so far. As for its defense, the club has given up 38 goals but allowed opponents to create 45.45 xG overall.
However, it’s been an offensive juggernaut against teams in the bottom half of the table. In 18 matches versus the bottom 10 teams in the Premier League, Tottenham is averaging 1.89 xG per match, which is drastically better than its performance against some of the top teams in the Premier League.
Harry Kane and Son Heung-min should be able to have a field day against the Leeds press, given the fact they’ve combined for 37 goals and since Tottenham has scored the second-most goals from open play in the Premier League this season.
Betting Analysis & Pick
I think this match is going to be full of chances at both ends of the pitch, especially given the fact that these are two of the teams that press the most in the Premier League.
Since I have 3.24 goals projected for this match, I think there’s some value on over three goals at +104 odds (DraftKings).
Pick: Over 3 (+104)
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