Matt McNulty – Manchester City/Manchester City FC via Getty Images. Pictured: Ruben Dias.
Chelsea vs. Manchester City Odds
| Chelsea Odds | +375 |
| Manchester City Odds | -125 |
| Draw | +250 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-110 / -120) |
| Day | Time | Saturday | 12:30 p.m. ET |
| How To Watch | ESPN+ |
| Odds as of Friday afternoon via BetMGM. | |
England’s two Champions League semifinalists will meet in a domestic semifinal on Saturday, with a trip to the FA Cup Final on the line.
Both of these teams were semifinalists in last year’s FA Cup, and both were dropped out by the reigning champions, Arsenal — the Gunners beat City in the semis and Chelsea in the final.
Chelsea and City are much different at this point in the season than they were at this point in the FA Cup last year. Let’s see how that translates to betting value.
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Chelsea
England’s first Champions League semifinalist is possibly the most unlikely of the four clubs to have qualified for the tournament this season.
While Manchester United were relegated to the Europa League in December, the Red Devils are second in the Premier League and have been consistently good since early October 2020. Liverpool are the reigning Premier League champions.
But since Thomas Tuchel took over, the Blues have become an ideal cup team. They have the attacking talent to produce moments of brilliance to win a game but are built upon a solid and organized defense.
These teams met earlier this season in a match that was thoroughly dominated by City, but Frank Lampard was still in charge at that point and there really isn’t much to take from it.
Since Tuchel took over, Chelsea have lost just twice in 18 games. One of those was a loss to West Brom on April 3 that saw the Blues down to 10 men for most of the game, and the other was Tuesday’s 1-0 defeat of Porto in the Champions League that saw the Blues progress.
In those 18 games, Chelsea have conceded just nine goals, and five of them came against West Brom.
Manchester City
There was awhile on Wednesday when I thought Manchester City would have to settle for the domestic treble this season. They conceded the first goal to Borussia Dortmund in the Champions League, which had the German side set to progress. But a second-half penalty (a fortunate one, some might say) and Phil Foden rocket put Pep Guardiola’s side through for a semifinal matchup with PSG.
City reached the semifinals of the FA Cup with a quarterfinal win over Everton, a relatively comfortable 2-0 result at Goodison Park. City controlled the game with a 1.4-0.4 xG advantage, typically keeping a clean sheet.
With injuries to Sergio Aguero and Gabriel Jesus this season, City have played with some of their more attacking players as “false nines,” or a withdrawn striker. It has been Bernardo Silva most of the time of late, although City has not scored more than twice in any of their last six games. (They’ve won five of those, but for a team with City’s attacking talent, you’d expect a greater attacking output.)
Guardiola’s team has conceded four goals in its last three games, including a shocking 2-1 result against Leeds United last Saturday. City dominated that game, 2.4-0.3 according to xG data on FBref.com, and faced a Leeds team down to 10 men for most of the match.
The defense has been City’s biggest strength this season thanks to the center-back pairing of Ruben Dias and John Stones. Dias could very well be the player of the season in the Premier League, while Stones has showed more poise this season while re-establishing himself in the City side.
Betting Analysis & Pick
Given the defensive prowess of both teams, this has the makings of a tight and tense cup tie. The under has really good value here at -120. I can definitely envision a goalless first half before a piece of brilliance decides things.
As seems to be the trend in Europe nowadays, the under is the play.
Pick: Under 2.5 Goals (-120)
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