Andreas Solaro – Pool/Getty Images. Pictured: Italy star Ciro Immobile.
We have finally reached the business part of the Euro 2020 tournament. Yes, life in the knockout stage begins Saturday in this soccer showcase.
There are two matches opening the single-elimination part of the competition. Everything starts with Wales taking on Denmark to open the Round of 16 fixtures. Powerful Italy goes up against Austria in the nightcap. The winners advance to next week’s quarterfinal round.
Our Action Network soccer analysts have you covered when it comes to your tournament needs, providing game previews, in-depth analysis and selections.
Handicappers BJ Cunningham and Jeremy Pond deliver their best bets for these affairs, with selections coming from each showdown. Let’s take a look at their top picks and see where they’ve found value in these matchups.
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Saturday’s Best Bets
| ANALYST | PICK | ODDS | BEST BOOK |
|---|---|---|
| Jeremy Pond | Wales vs. Denmark Under 2.25 (-152) | DraftKings |
| BJ Cunningham | Austria +1 (+104) | DraftKings |
Odds as of Friday evening.
Jeremy Pond: Wales vs. Denmark — Total Under 2.25 Goals (-152)
- Odds available at DraftKings
This should be an absolute chess match of a battle, with everyone’s new love Denmark taking on a gritty Wales side that finished second in Group A behind powerful Italy.
The Danes’ offense has produced solid numbers in terms of expected goals thus far, finishing with no less than 1.8 xG in their three group-stage matches. However, I fully expect some regression from Denmark following that emotional 4-1 win over Russia in Copenhagen that helped it advance.
That said, I’m backing the total to stay under 2.25 goals via the Asian Handicap and will make it my top play. I secured a wager under the current -152 odds earlier in the week, so I recommend shopping around for a better number with less juice. The odds might tick down a touch before kickoff, but don’t expect an outrageous shift in price.
Wales is known for playing extremely low-scoring matches, highlighted by the fact 10 of its last 12 games across all competitions have finished with two goals or less. I fully expected Gareth Bale and the Welsh to keep the Danes in front of them as much as possible, leading to few quality-scoring chances.
If you’re looking to play a side, I’m taking Denmark at -120 odds via DraftKings as well. There’s just something magical about the Danes, and I expect them to deliver their fans and nation a Dutch treat in Amsterdam.
BJ Cunningham: Austria +1 (+104) vs. Italy
- Odds available at DraftKings
Look, it’s hard to find a lot of negatives surrounding this Italian side right now.
Not only have Azzurri not allowed goal so far at this tournament, they actually haven’t conceded a goal in more than 1,000 minutes of international play under manager Roberto Mancini.
Italy, which has been able to control the midfield for all three of its group-stage matches, will now face an opponent with the best opposing midfield it has faced via the trio of Marcel Sabitzer, Konrad Laimer and Xaver Schlager. They have really good so far, dominating the middle of the pitch against North Macedonia and Ukraine.
They also held their own against the mighty Dutch, completing more passes and held about 50% of the possession, but just couldn’t do anything finished in the final third of the field.
Austria was really successful with its press in the group stage. The nation had the second-best successful pressure rate at 38%, while the three teams Italy faced were all below 28% in the same category.
So, I really think Austria will be able to give Italy some issues, and honestly, think the market has overreacted to the heavy favorite. This will also be Azzurri’s first match outside Rome as well.
For those reasons, I’m taking Austria +1 at ripe +104 odds via DraftKings and would play anything up to -120 odds.
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