John Walton/PA Images via Getty Images. Pictured: Ivan Toney.
Brentford vs. Watford Odds
| Brentford Odds | +140 |
| Watford Odds | +195 |
| Draw | +225 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (+118 / -148) |
| Day | Time | Saturday | 10 a.m. ET |
| How To Watch | ESPN+ |
| Odds updated Friday afternoon via DraftKings. | |
Brentford look to take another step towards the top seed in the English Championship playoffs against Watford on Saturday morning.
Brentford is currently four points ahead of Bournemouth, Swansea and Barnsley with two matches to play in the season. The Bees fell just short against Fulham in the playoff final and are looking to get promoted for the Premier League for the first time since the 1992-93 season.
Watford secured promotion back into the Premier League last weekend with a 1-0 win over Millwall. While this match will be somewhat meaningless to the Hornets, they still have an outside shot at overtaking Norwich for the top spot in the league.
It will be interesting to see how much stock Watford put in this match, while Brentford have everything to play for.
Brentford
The Bees may be in third place, but they really should have already secured promotion to the Premier League. Brentford have the best expected goal differential at +31.9, which is almost 10 xG higher than first-place Norwich City.
One of the reasons for that is because of Brentford’s offense, which scores goals in bunches at 1.64 xG per match. Striker Ivan Toney has been thrashing opposing defenses all season long, bagging 29 goals with a 0.57 xG per 90 minute scoring rate. He was a big problem for Watford’s defense in the last meeting between these two teams, scoring once and racking up 1.42 xG.
Brentford also have the best defensive record in the Championship, allowing only 0.93 xG per match. The Bees have really turned up the defensive pressure over their last eight matches, allowing only 0.80 xG per contest.
Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.
Watford
The Hornets had a fantastic season to secure promotion back into the Premier League with a fantastic defense, that allows only 1.00 xG per match. However, a lot of their success has come at home, as only 32 of their 88 points have come away from Vicarage Road.
Watford only have a +5.40 xG differential on the road this season and are averaging only 1.24 xG per match. The Hornets have struggled on the road versus difficult competition, going 1-4-0 against the top-seven teams in the Championship.
What will be interesting to see is if Watford has a hangover from the celebration on securing promotion last weekend or how seriously they will be taking this match, since it is essentially meaningless to them.
Betting Analysis & Pick
With this match not meaning very much to Watford, I think this is a perfect opportunity for Brentford to secure third place and the top seed in the Championship playoffs.
Since I have Brentford projected at +121, I think there is value on the Bees at +140 to grab all three points at home.
Pick: Brentford ML (+140)
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