Photo by Patrick Smith/Getty Images. Pictured: Houston Cougars quarterback Clayton Tune celebrates with tight end Christian Trahan
Well hello college football Week 1 Saturday slate!
After some appetizers along the way, Saturday gives us the first real taste of a loaded regular season schedule with games ranging from noon ET through 11 p.m. ET.
While exciting, this also poses problems for casual bettors.
For example, are bettors fully educated on the 2021 versions of every team in action on Saturday — enough to so to handicap each of these games for value?
The Action Network’s College Football PRO Report has entered the chat.
By tracking and summarizing five key college football value indicators — (1) sharp betting action, (2) massive wagers, (3) winning betting systems, (4) model projections and (5) expert picks — in real-time, bettors can quickly and efficiently break down an entire board and instantly pinpoint the day’s top bets.
And when it comes to Saturday’s top values, three games — ranging from 12 p.m. ET to 7 p.m. ET start times — are rising above the rest as the smartest betting opportunities.
College Football Betting Picks
*Odds as of Friday afternoon
Western Michigan vs. Michigan Pick
12 p.m. ET | ESPN
Big Money
In Saturday’s nationally-televised noon ET kickoff on ESPN, bettors are relatively split (54% of tickets have landed on Michigan thus far), but the real money percentages tell a much more interesting story.
Despite attracting just 46% of the bets, Western Michigan has garnered 89% of the money wagered, showing that sportsbooks are seeing the largest wagers on the road underdog.
Model Projection
While the Western Michigan betting model edge isn’t the biggest of Saturday’s slate (that title goes to Marshall), it’s still an edge worth noting.
Our College Football PRO Projections make this spread Broncos +11.1 — a B-minus graded, 4.6% edge when compared to the +17 consensus line.
Top Experts
One of our top college football betting experts is on board with Western Michigan, and its edge, as well
PRO Report Pick: Western Michigan +17
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Stanford vs. Kansas State Pick
12 p.m. ET | FS1
Sharp Action
College football Week 1 has been interesting to track from a market perspective considering how much professional action has hit favorites, just like Kansas State.
Action Labs’ Bet Signals have tracked three waves of sharp money flowing on the Wildcats, flipping them from short underdogs to 3-point favorites (click here for updated college football Week 1 odds).
Model Projection
We project Kansas State as a 5.6-point favorite against Stanford on Saturday, which results in a 6.1% edge at the time of writing.
While this edge may not seem all that large right now, think about how much value wiseguys have banked along the way rocketing Kansas State from a 2-point underdog up to -3.
Top Experts
The Action Network’s experts clearly track the college football market as well, with one of our verified bettors also locking in the Wildcats along the way.
PRO Report Pick: Kansas State -3
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Texas Tech vs. Houston Pick
7 p.m. ET | ESPN
PRO Systems
While the two games above rely more on market activity to pinpoint value, Texas Tech vs. Houston shows a combination of a historically-profitable betting angle and a monster projection edge.
To start, Houston is a match for our Opening Game Matchup PRO Betting System, which has produced a 248-188-6 (57%) ATS record since the start of the 2005 season.
Model Projection
Not only is Houston in a winning spot historically, its also showing a small spread edge on Saturday.
Our model projects the Cougars as 3-point favorites, translating to a 2.9% edge when compared to the market consensus.
Top Experts
Where there’s value you’ll often find out experts, and once again one of The Action Network’s top bettors has taken a position on Houston for Saturday night’s matchup.
PRO Report Pick: Houston -1.5
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