Hasan Bratic/picture alliance via Getty Images. Pictured: RB Leipzig standout Tyler Adams.
RB Leipzig vs. Bayer Leverkusen Odds
| RB Leipzig Odds | -112 |
| Leverkusen Odds | +310 |
| Draw | +250 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-139/+112) |
| Day | Time | Saturday | 12:30 p.m. ET |
| How To Watch | ESPN+ |
Odds updated as of Friday at 6:15 p.m. ET and via DraftKings. Get up to a $1,000 sign-up bonus at DraftKings today or see more offers and reviews for the best online sportsbooks.
Bayer Leverkusen has lost four of its last six matches in Bundesliga play entering Saturday’s clash with RB Leipzig.
Leverkusen did pick up a midweek victory against Borussia Dortmund, but created few chances in their 1-0 loss to Wolfsburg during last weekend’s fixtures.
While Leipzig is the closest challenger to Bayern Munich in the league at the moment, manager Julian Nagelsmann’s side dropped three points to lowly Mainz last week, making this is a must-win for both teams to regain form.
RB Leipzig
The loss of Timo Werner to Chelsea has truly tested the Nagelsmann attacking style. He’s proven at Leipzig that even without a defined striker, his offense can find xG chances from anywhere and everywhere. Leipzig has nine players averaging 0.2 xG per 90 this year, with no regular players over 0.38 xG per 90 minutes.
The club’s defense has shown some cracks in recent weeks, though, allowing eight goals in its last four matches. However, that was more of a bad run of variance than anything else and Nagelsmann will look to tighten up after conceding a bunch of goals.
Over the course of the season, no team has allowed fewer chances than Leipzig. At Red Bulla Arena, Leipzig has conceded just six goals and 7.9 xGA in nine matches. Half of those six goals came in a half against Dortmund two weeks ago. The club allows the fewest shots per match in the Bundesliga, with the fifth-lowest xG per shot, so it will be difficult to break down in this spot.
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Bayer Leverkusen
Anyone who follows my work here knows my thoughts on Leverkusen, both before and during the season. They piled up plenty of good early results by running unbelievably hot early in the season, and the talk of a title challenge to Bayern Munich was quickly dispatched in the recent run of matches.
Only six times have a lower xG output than Leverkusen. Like the rest of Europe, pressing rates have decreased in recent weeks, as the crammed pandemic schedule is hurting the way that Peter Bosz’s side wants to play.
They took advantage of a discombobulated Dortmund side last week, exploiting it with balls over the top and a late counterattacking winner. The defense is still very much good, ranking second in the Bundesliga in xGA, only to Leipzig. Its defense is not why is hasn’t been able to get results.
Leipzig’s midfield will suffocate this Leverkusen press, making it very difficult for Bayer to get in behind.
Betting Analysis & Picks
When these sides met in the beginning of the season, Bayer Leverkusen scored a goal from outside the box and created one big scoring chance at home. Now, they’re on the road against a Leipzig defense, which has improved as the season’s gone on.
A fluke loss to Mainz doesn’t change that Leipzig is a much better team and should roll here.
I project Leipzig at -130 and will back them on the money line to -120.
Pick: RB Leipzig ML (-120 or better)
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