Lars Baron/Getty Images. Pictured: Borussia Dortmund striker Erling Haaland.
Dortmund vs. Eintracht Frankfurt Odds
| Dortmund Odds | -129 |
| Eintracht Frankfurt Odds | +325 |
| Draw | +290 |
| Over/Under | 3.5 (+115 / -141) |
| Day | Time | Saturday | 9:30 a.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN+ |
| Odds as of Friday via DraftKings. | |
It’s a huge weekend in the Bundesliga, with second-place RB Leipzig hosting league-leaders Bayern Munich on Saturday. But prior to that is another important match, featuring fifth-place Borussia Dortmund hosting fourth-place Eintracht Frankfurt.
Here’s a closer look at these two clubs, followed by a prediction.
Dortmund
With eight matches remaining in the season, Borussia Dortmund have 43 points — putting them four points behind Eintracht Frankfurt for the final automatic Champions League spot next season.
Dortmund are also still alive in this season’s Champions League, but they face a tall task in the quarterfinals. They’ll be taking on Premier League leaders Manchester City, and the first leg is on Tuesday, in Manchester.
Dortmund’s most recent match in the Bundesliga was a 2-2 draw at 16th-place Koln on March 20. They had won three of their previous four league matches — 4-0 at Schalke, 3-0 over Arminia and 2-0 over Hertha. There was also a 4-2 loss at Bayern during that stretch.
Dortmund have scored 54 goals in 26 Bundesliga matches, more than two per game. That ranks them second in the league, although they’re way behind Bayern, who have scored 78. Dortmund have also conceded 37 goals, so nearly 1.5 per game.
_BookPromo=1283
Eintracht Frankfurt
Eintracht Frankfurt, as mentioned above, have a four-point lead over Dortmund. And they are four points below third-place Wolfsburg.
Frankfurt were not involved in European competition this season, and were eliminated from the DFB-Pokal in mid-January. So they’ve been focused on the Bundesliga exclusively for a while now.
Frankfurt’s most recent match was a 5-2 win over seventh-place Union Berlin on March 20. That was preceded by 1-1 draws with Leipzig and ninth-place Stuttgart. Before that was a 2-1 loss at 12th-place Werder Bremen, but they beat Bayern 2-1 in the match before that.
In terms of goals scored and goals conceded, these two clubs are practically even. Frankfurt have scored 53 goals, one fewer than Dortmund. And they’ve also conceded one fewer goal, 36.
Betting Analysis & Pick
The first meeting between these clubs this finished 1-1, way back on Dec. 5. But Dortmund outshot Frankfurt 16-9, and topped them in terms of xG (expected goals) 1.2 to 0.8 according to FBRef.
Speaking of xG, the underlying numbers reveal a rather stark difference between these two clubs, despite the fact they have identical goal differentials of +17.
In terms of xG differential, Dortmund has been significantly better this season. They are at +22.0, which places them third in the league, and not very far behind Leipzig (+26.7) and Bayern (+24.8).
Frankfurt are +8.3 in xG differential, which ranks them seventh, also behind Wolfsburg and Borussia Monchengladbach (+10.1), and Union Berlin (+9.5).
And you have to take Frankfurt’s recent good results with a grain of salt. They’ve lost four of their past five matches in terms of xG — including that 5-2 victory over Union Berlin, the draw with Leipzig, and the win over Bayern.
I like Dortmund, at home, on Saturday.
Pick: Borussia Dortmund (-129)
_BookPromo=49