Alex Gottschalk/DeFodi Images via Getty Images. Pictured: Dortmund’s Jadon Sancho.
Bayern Munich vs. Dortmund Odds
| Bayern Munich Odds | -175 |
| Dortmund Odds | +410 |
| Draw | +340 |
| Over/Under | 3.5 (-125 / +102) |
| Day | Time | Saturday | 12:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | ABC |
| Odds as of Friday afternoon via DraftKings. | |
Two of the biggest clubs in Germany meet at the Allianz Arena on Saturday for what is now known as Der Klassiker.
Bayern Munich is once again a top to Bundesliga table and in rout to their ninth straight title. They’ve slipped up the past few matches drawing with bottom of the table side Arminia Bielefeld and losing on the road to Frankfurt. The Bavarians lead is only two points over second-place RB Leipzig, so this match is vitally important if they want to stay at the top of the table.
It’s been a really difficult season for Dortmund, who are in fifth place and three points off the top four. They’ve been so up and down with wins over RB Leipzig and recently Sevilla on the road, but also three losses to teams in the bottom half of the table.
They also haven’t had much success vs. Bayern Munich in the past, losing seven of their last eight meetings, so naturally they come in as big underdogs.
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Bayern Munich
Bayern Munich has been their usual dominant selves this campaign, but they haven’t been as dominant as they were during the restart of last season. In fact, if you look at the table below, they’ve actually seen quite a steep drop-off in their expected goal numbers between years.
A lot of their success offensively has come from beating up on the bottom of the table. In nine matches against the bottom-five teams in the Bundesliga, Bayern Munich is averaging 2.46 xG per match, and they’re averaging only 1.99 xG per match against the rest of the league.
In the first matchup against Dortmund, Bayern walked away with a 3-2 victory at Signal Iduna Park, but Dortmund was by far the better side that day winning the expected goals battle and creating more high quality chances (map via Infogol):
Dortmund
It’s been a weird, interesting season for Dortmund, who are currently on the outside looking in at the top four. It’s been a couple months since they fired manager Lucien Favre and have been led by interim manager Edin Terzic.
Although things on the surface look like bad for Dortmund, their underlying metrics are actually quite good.
Die Borussen’s offense has been clicking on all cylinders, scoring 1.96 xG per match. A lot of the has to do with their all world striker Erling Haaland, who is thrashing opposing defenses in the Bundesliga with 17 goals in 18 appearances. He’s also averaging 0.80 xG per 90 minutes this season, which is the third-best average in the Bundesliga.
What’s interesting about this Dortmund team is how much better they are playing out of the 4-2-3-1 than they did last season. During the 2019-20 campaign, Dortmund had only a +2.20 xGD and allowed 1.41 xG per 90 minutes when playing out of that formation.
Through 23 matches this season, Die Borussen has a +14.31 xGD and is allowing only 1.00 xG per 90 minutes.
So, the biggest improvements have clearly come in the defensive third of the pitch because Dortmund is actually allowing less expected goals per match than Bayern Munich.
Betting Analysis & Picks
Despite being the league leaders, Bayern Munich’s underlying metrics are not that impressive. In fact, they essentially have the exact same expected goal differential as Dortmund, so they should be as big of favorites as they currently are.
Therefore, I am going to back Dortmund’s spread of +1 at -112 odds.
Pick: Borussia Dortmund +1 (-112)
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