San Jose State vs. Hawaii Odds & Pick: High-Flying Offensive Showdown Expected on Island (Sept. 19)

San Jose State vs. Hawaii Odds

If you’re like me, you’ll probably be up early Sunday morning watching the last game of the Week 3 slate.

In this one, San Jose State will to travel Honolulu to take on its rival Hawaii. The Rainbow Warriors lead the all-time series 22-20-1 and have won three of the last four meetings.

However, the Spartans won last year’s meeting, which was also in Honolulu because San Jose State was unable to play at home due to the pandemic. The Spartans will look to make it two in a row over the Rainbow Warriors on Saturday.

San Jose State and Hawaii play for the Dick Tomey Trophy in honor of the late legendary coach, who began his head coaching career at Hawaii and finished at San Jose State.

Tomey was a mentor to Spartans head coach Brent Brennan. Brennan was also a cousin of the late legendary Hawaii quarterback Colt Brennan. Brent recruited Colt to San Jose State while an assistant under Tomey.

Brennan will have ample reason for wanting to keep the Dick Tomey Trophy in San Jose.

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The Spartans have been on an upward trajectory since Brennan took over in 2017, which culminated in a Mountain West Conference championship last season.

This season, San Jose State has been involved in a couple of blowouts, a 45-14 win over Southern Utah and 30-7 loss to USC.

The Spartans will begin their defense of their MWC title this week.

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Spartans Offense

The identity of the Spartans’ offense revolves around their passing attack, as they throw the ball 64% of the time.

Quarterback Nick Starkel is the trigger man and he’s thrown for 702 yards and four touchdowns this season. However, he has struggled with accuracy, completing just 54.8% of his passes with three interceptions.

The concern entering the season was replacing Bailey Gaither and Tre Walker at receiver. Thus far, those concerns have been alleviated as the Spartans spread the ball around and already have four receivers over 100 yards in the first two games. Tight end Derrick Deese leads the way with six catches for 135 yards and a touchdown.

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Spartans Defense

The Spartans brought back 10 starters on defense from last year’s team. They run a 3-4 defense that has a lot of speed and thrives on disruption (they rank 28th nationally in havoc).

Though the final score ended up lopsided, San Jose State’s defense held its own against USC. The Spartans held the Trojans to just two offensive touchdowns and forced three field goals along with two turnovers.

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The Rainbow Warriors are 1-2 with road losses to Pac-12 opponents, UCLA and Oregon State, sandwiched around a home win over FCS Portland State.

Their conference opener will mark the first opportunity for head coach Todd Graham to prove his squad can be a contender in the MWC this season.

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Rainbow Warriors Offense

Hawaii’s offense is centered around dual-threat quarterback Chevan Cordeiro, who can be an all-or-nothing player at times. Cordeiro excels at buying time in the pocket and keeping plays alive with his feet. However, occasionally that can lead to mistakes, as he’s thrown five interceptions in the first three games.

Cordeiro is often keeping plays alive because his offensive line is a bit shaky. The Rainbow Warriors rank 122nd in line yards and 116th in havoc allowed. The quarterback has been sacked 10 times in the first three games.

Cordeiro has a solid crew of playmakers around him, headlined by wide receiver Calvin Turner. Hawaii has utilized Turner as an all-purpose weapon this season. He has 57 yards rushing and three touchdowns, 17 catches for 238 yards and one touchdown and he also returns punts.

Wide receiver Nick Mardner leads the team in receiving yards with 242 on 13 catches and three touchdowns, while running back Dae Dae Hunter is averaging 6.2 YPC.

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Rainbow Warriors Defense

Hawaii has forced five turnovers in its first three games, but that may be the only good thing it has going for itself defensively. The Rainbow Warriors have given up at least 35 points in every game this season and rank 123rd in scoring defense, surrendering 41.3 PPG.

The Rainbow Warriors defense has been vulnerable against both the run and the pass, ranking 116th in passing success rate and 105th in rushing success rate defensively.

For good measure, the Rainbow Warriors rank 117th in finishing drives and 115th in big play percentage allowed. That’ll be an issue against San Jose State.

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San Jose State vs. Hawaii Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how San Jose State and Hawaii match up statistically:

San Jose State Offense vs. Hawaii Defense

	Offense	Defense	Edge
Rush Success	—	105
Line Yards	—	80
Pass Success	—	116
Pass Blocking*	106	87
Big Play	5	115
Havoc**	20	80
Finishing Drives	—	117
*Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)**Havoc Allowed (Off.) vs. Havoc (Def.)

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Hawaii Offense vs. San Jose State Defense

	Offense	Defense	Edge
Rush Success	87	—
Line Yards	122	—
Pass Success	104	—
Pass Blocking*	43	96
Big Play	32	48
Havoc**	116	28
Finishing Drives	100	—
* Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)** Havoc Allowed (Off.) vs. Havoc (Def.)

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Pace of Play / Other

PFF Tackling	109	107
PFF Coverage	25	120
Middle 8	99	113
SP+ Special Teams	56	1
Plays per Minute	66	19
Rush Rate	35.6% (125)	—

Data via College Football Data (CFBD), FootballOutsiders, SP+, PFF & SportSource Analytics.

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San Jose State vs. Hawaii Betting Pick

The last four matchups in this series have seen an explosion of points, an average of 72.2 PPG. Several factors seem indicate that another high-scoring game is on the horizon.

San Jose State and Hawaii are two of the poorest tackling teams in the country, ranking 109th and 107th respectively. One missed tackle can turn into a big play and offensively, San Jose State excels in creating big plays while Hawaii gives them up in bunches.

If San Jose State crosses the Hawaii 40, it’s likely that the drive will end in a touchdown.

Additionally, Hawaii wants to go fast offensively, ranking 19th in plays per minute. That adds up to extra plays in a game where both quarterbacks can be prone to turning the ball over.

More turnovers and passes being incomplete lead to more possessions and time on the clock. In a matchup of two flying offenses, that’s the making of a shootout.

I am locking in over 60.5 at -115 on DraftKings and would play it up to 63.5

Pick: Over 60.5

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