Sean M. Haffey/Getty Images. Pictured: San Diego’s Ha-seong Kim and Tucupita Marcano.
Rockies vs. Padres Odds
| Rockies Odds | +180 |
| Padres Odds | -210 |
| Over/Under | 6.5 (-104 / -118) |
| Time | 10:10 p.m. ET |
| TV | MLB.TV |
| Odds as of Monday afternoon and via DraftKings. | |
The Padres are on a run, and it’s come without many of their key bats in the lineup. It could finally be time to believe in this offense, even against Jon Gray, who’s pitched brilliantly for Colorado.
Is there any value to be found in fading the Rockies’ bats here in favor of the unlikely Padres, or will luck run out? Let’s see if we can find the answer in the numbers below.
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Rockies’ Road Blues Continue
It’s never a surprise to see Colorado’s numbers away from the hitter-friendly Coors Field looking bleak, but what the Rockies have done this year would be a new low. Colorado has gone just 2-14 as the away team, posting a 69 wRC+ along the way in those games to rank as the worst road offense in baseball. Raimel Tapia, Charlie Blackmon and Ryan McMahon have kept kitting in these games, but aside from that it’s been pretty bleak. Trevor Story has just two homers on the road, and Garrett Hampson’s hitting just .193.
The home-road bug has also bit today’s starter, Gray, who impossibly has been lights-out at the hitter-friendly Coors Field and has struggled in some more pitcher-friendly environments. One of those games was against the Dodgers, though, and one was against a hot Diamondbacks team, so perhaps the sample is small and the opponents aren’t exactly fair to Gray.
For the season, Gray has seen a drastic improvement in his strikeout numbers over last year, bringing his K% back up to 22.9%, though walks have come along with them. He’s hardly been hit hard, allowing just three barrels in 46 innings, and the list of teams he’s dominated at Coors have included the Dodgers, Astros, Phillies, Giants and Padres. That’s impressive.
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Replacement Padres’ Run Has Been Unthinkable
Ivan Castillo? Patrick Kivlehan? Tucupita Marcano? Who are you people? The Padres are on an unexpected heater right now, and it may be the most wild story in baseball.
San Diego lost Fernando Tatis, Jr., Wil Myers, Eric Hosmer, Jurickson Profar and Jorge Mateo to the COVID list on May 11, and all the reserves and remaining starters left on this team have done is win five of six games, including a series sweep of the the NL Central-leading Cardinals.
Over the past week, the Padres have the sixth-best wOBA in baseball at .353, better than teams like the Dodgers, Rays and Red Sox. They’ve truly been a force at the plate, and it’s been due to contact hitting; San Diego leads the way over that span with a 81.8% contact rate .
All of that sounds like reason enough to like the Padres, then you see that they’ve got Yu Darvish on the mound on Monday, and he’s been shoving. Darvish is striking out more than 31% of hitters for a third-straight season, and though he hasn’t gone deep into games lately, he can still lay claim to not allowing more than two runs in and outing since his disappointing debut on Opening Day.
Darvish’s last start came against these same Rockies, and he dominated, allowing an unearned run on two hits and a walk over four. Now facing them at home, those numbers could get even better.
Rockies-Padres Pick
It’s taken quite a few games, but I’m now a total believer in this Padres lineup. These depth pieces are putting the bat on the ball, which is making life difficult for opposing pitchers. Gray’s been great this season, but against a team with great plate discipline at the moment, he may lose a lot of his strikeout upside and thus a lot of his luster in this matchup.
San Diego should get a few on the board early and allow Darvish to settle in against a positively awful offense on the road. I’m not a huge run line guy normally, but I don’t feel as though this will be very close.
Pick: Padres -1.5 (+100)
