Michael Reaves/Getty Images. Pictured: Francisco Lindor
Rockies vs. Mets Odds
| Rockies Odds | +125 |
| Mets Odds | -145 |
| Over/Under | 6.5 (+100/-120) |
| Time | 7:10 p.m. ET |
| TV | MLB.TV |
| Odds as of Monday morning and via PointsBet. | |
Despite two questionable pitchers, the combination of the Rockies’ terrible road offense and the Mets injury-riddled lineup has made this total very low.
Austin Gomber and David Peterson both have potential, but also come with question marks. With a total as low as 6.5, one mistake could prove disastrous for the under.
Is that the play or is there another angle? Let’s take a look at the series opener between these two teams in Queens.
For The Rockies, the Road is Rocky
The story of the Rockies’ season has been their struggles on the road.
The Rockies are 2-17 on the road this season, which is almost impossible to fathom. In road games, the offense ranks dead last in average (.209), OPS (.573), wOBA (.254), wRC+ (58), and every other conceivable offensive stat. They also strike out more often than any road team (27.5%). Meanwhile, the pitching staff ranks dead last in both FIP (5.03) and WHIP (1.57) on the road.
Most recently, the Rockies suffered a three-game sweep to the Padres at Petco Park. And by losing those games by a cumulative 12-1 score, the Rockies’ run differential on the road is now -54.
Their 16-12 record at Coors Field has kept the Rockies above the Diamondbacks in the standings. However, they’re also 12 games behind the division leader and 10 games behind in the wild card race. I’d expect the Rockies to be sellers at the deadline.
Starting pitcher: Austin Gomber (LHP)
Gomber’s had a tough year and has put together some awful starts. However, he’s strung together back-to-back quality starts over the past 10 days.
In his last two starts, both against the Padres, Gomber’s pitched 11 1/3 innings while allowing just one run on nine hits. He also struck out 13 and walked just two during that stretch. The two starts dropped his ERA 1.30 points and his WHIP 0.10 points.
Gomber has a four-pitch mix highlighted by a 92-mph four-seam fastball. His most effective pitch has been the curveball, which is producing a 36.1% whiff rate and allowing just a .159 wOBA. Overall, the mix has been pretty good at avoiding hard contact, as Gomber ranks in the 85th percentile in hard-hit percentage (7.1%) and in the 66th percentile in exit velocity (88.1 mph).
It’ll be interesting to see if the lanky lefty can continue his mini hot streak against a beat up Mets offense.
So Many Mets On The Mend
The NL East is a slog, as all five teams are within 2.5 games of each other. However, the Mets are at the top.
The 21-19 Mets, who just lost two straight to a division rival and have a run differential of -13, are somehow leading their division by 1.5 games. The Mets have a ridiculous 2-10 record against winning teams this season.
However, unlike their opponent today, the Mets have been a good home team. The Mets are 11-4 at home this season behind a pitching staff that ranks first in FIP (2.39) and second in WHIP (0.98).
It’s worth noting that the Mets’ injury report reads like a novel at the moment. Pitchers on the injury report include: Jacob deGrom, Jordan Yamamoto, Taijuan Walker, Carlos Carrasco and Noah Syndergaard. Meanwhile, position players on the injury report include: Pete Alonso, Michael Conforto, Jose Peraza, Kevin Pillar, Jeff McNeil, J.D. Davis, Brandon Nimmo and Albert Almora.
Starting pitcher: David Peterson (LHP)
The young southpaw has had flashes of brilliance this season. I’ve identified four high-quality starts:
- April 14 Phillies: 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 H, 10 K, 0 BB
- April 27 vs. Red Sox: 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 3 K, 2 BB
- Mat 2 vs. vs. Phillies: 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 8 K, 2 BB
- May 14 vs Rays: 7.1 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 9 K, 2 BB
Outside of those starts, however, he’s gotten into trouble at times. Which explains why his ERA is up around 5 and his WHIP is approaching 1.30. Additionally, the Mets are just 3-5 in his starts.
Peterson needs to work on his four-seam, as he’s allowing a .583 slugging percentage and a .373 wOBA on the pitch. Additionally, he’s allowing a lot of hard-hit contact and has some trouble keeping the ball in the park (26.1% HR/FB rate).
However, I think Peterson has a lot of a potential. His most-used pitch is the sinker, and he’s forcing a ground ball rate above 50%. Meanwhile, he’s striking out more than 10 batters per nine and has an xFIP of just 3.12.
Rockies-Mets Pick
While these two lineups are terrible and injury-riddled, 6.5 is too low of a number.
These two pitchers have potential, but they come with serious question marks. Peterson’s high home-run rate might prove important with the wind blowing out to left field today (around 10 mph), and Gomber’s .262 BABIP should regress towards league average (.300).
Both pitchers have the ability to blow up at any time as well. Like when Peterson allowed six runs in four innings in his 2021 debut or Gomber allowed nine runs in 1 2/3 innings back on April 26.
Our Action PRO model makes this total 7.54, so I think there’s value at taking the over at -120.
Pick: Over 6.5 (-120)
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