Brett Carlsen/Getty Images. Pictured: Bills mascot
The Texans have lost two in a row since their surprise (?) season-opening win over rookie quarterback Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars. Now Houston draws the Bills in Buffalo, where the Texans should find themselves on their way to 1-3.
It’s no surprise, then, that the Bills sit atop Sean Koerner’s straight-up (SU) rankings for Week 4 with a 92% win probability that’s 17% higher than the next-best teams.
If you’re in an against the spread (ATS) pool, though, don’t sweat — Sean has you covered there, too. With a 6.3% edge based on his projected spread of Saints -6 vs. the actual spread of Saints -8, the Giants lead his ATS rankings (compare real-time NFL odds here).
Below you’ll find his full confidence rankings for SU and ATS picks heading into Week 4. Note that they’re based on his power ratings, which help power our NFL PRO Projections. They account for various factors such as injuries and travel.
He’ll update these rankings before Sunday’s games kickoff, so be sure to bookmark this story and check it again that morning. He’ll also reveal which spread and over/under edges he’s betting then, which we’ll link within this story, but you can also follow him in the Action app to receive notifications about any picks he tracks there.
Ranking NFL Pick’Em Picks
JUMP TO: Straight Up | Against the Spread
_PromoID=[315, 516, 4791, 4984]
NFL Straight Up Picks
| Conf | Team | Opp | Win Prob% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bills | vs. HOU | 92% |
| T-2 | Packers | vs. PIT | 75% |
| T-2 | Chiefs | @ PHI | 75% |
| T-4 | Titans | @ NYJ | 74% |
| T-4 | Bengals | vs. JAX | 74% |
| 6 | Buccaneers | @ NE | 71% |
| 7 | Saints | vs. NYG | 70% |
| 8 | Chargers | vs. LV | 67% |
| T-9 | Cowboys | vs. CAR | 65% |
| T-9 | Rams | vs. ARI | 65% |
| 11 | Bears | vs. DET | 63% |
| 12 | 49ers | vs. SEA | 56% |
| 13 | Broncos | vs. BAL | 54% |
| T-14 | Football Team | @ ATL | 53% |
| T-14 | Dolphins | vs. IND | 53% |
| T-14 | Browns | @ MIN | 53% |
| T-17 | Falcons | vs. WAS | 47% |
| T-17 | Colts | @ MIA | 47% |
| T-17 | Vikings | vs. CLE | 47% |
| 20 | Ravens | @ DEN | 46% |
| 21 | Seahawks | @ SF | 44% |
| 22 | Lions | @ CHI | 37% |
| T-23 | Panthers | @ DAL | 35% |
| T-23 | Cardinals | @ LAR | 35% |
| 25 | Raiders | @ LAC | 33% |
| 26 | Giants | @ NO | 30% |
| 27 | Patriots | vs. TB | 29% |
| T-28 | Jaguars | @ CIN | 26% |
| T-28 | Jets | vs. TEN | 26% |
| T-30 | Steelers | @ GB | 25% |
| T-30 | Eagles | vs. KC | 25% |
| 32 | Texans | @ BUF | 8% |
NFL ATS Picks
I’ll update the embedded table featuring my ATS confidence ratings throughout the week, but your contest may use different lines, so I’ve also created this downloadable spreadsheet so you can calculate ratings specific to your pool.
Simply add the odds your contest is using into Column D, then the edge and ratings will automatically recalculate in Column F.