Premier League Odds, Picks, Predictions: Our 3 Best Bets for Saturday Morning (August 21)

We have another stacked Premier League card on deck this weekend, with the majority of matches taking place Saturday across the first division.

Soccer analysts Matthew Trebby, Jeremy Pond and Ian Quillen have unveiled their best bets on the morning slate. We kick things off with Liverpool playing host to Burnley at Anfield, followed by betting angles from contests featuring Manchester City vs. Norwich City and Leeds vs. Everton.

Check out below their detailed thoughts and in-depth analysis for those games, plus their best bets, on another busy slate in the English top flight.

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Liverpool vs. Burnley Odds

Matthew Trebby: How lopsided is this matchup, according to sportsbooks? DraftKings has Liverpool -1.5 at -190 odds.

I don’t love the total here because I don’t necessarily see Burnley scoring. Over 2.5 goals is a staggering -190, which means books are clearly confident the Reds attack is going to thrive.

I do see a big win for the Reds here and see the best way of backing that as Liverpool -2 (+105) at DraftKings. That way, bettors have a bit of extra security in case they only win by a pair.

It wouldn’t shock me at all if this becomes an embarrassment for Burnley, whose relegation odds are going to be close to even soon.

Trebby’s Pick: Liverpool -2 (+105)

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Manchester City vs. Norwich City Odds

Jeremy Pond: This could be another lopsided score for the Canaries, who are really up against it facing a club that is going to come at them full throttle from the opening whistle.

Manchester City is just better, deeper and more talented than Norwich City, which I believe will translate into a rout. Making things even less fun is the fact the visitors are stuck facing an opponent that’s going to enjoy taking out its frustrations following that loss to Spurs- to open its campaign.

That said, I’m backing Manchester City on the Asian Handicap spread line of -2.25 at -135 odds via DraftKings as my top selection. The Cityzens have scored at least two goals in nine of their last 11 games against the Canaries across all competitions, giving me even more confidence in this wager.

If you’re looking for a good prop play, take a shot on the second half featuring the most goals at +100 odds. I fully expect Norwich City to run out of gas after dealing with the relentless Manchester City attack living in its defensive third early on. That should open things up for the Cityzens in the final 45 minutes, leading them to the comfortable victory.

Pond’s Picks: Manchester City -2.25 (-135) | Highest Scoring Half — Second (+100)

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Leeds vs. Everton Odds

Ian Quillen: While Everton are undergoing a substantial tactical change, neither of these teams have seen massive offseason squad overhauls, which makes data from last year a bit more useful than it might be otherwise.

Leeds finished the previous year in ninth — one place above Everton — and with an xG difference of -5.4 to Everton’s -4.8 in the advanced metric.

On paper, Everton have the deeper squad (and larger wage bill), but when you factor in Rodriguez’s absence and the learning curve of a new manager, it’s hard to see much that divides these teams at this early juncture.

Before COVID-19, Premier League teams won roughly 46% of their home matches, which is about the frequency you’d expect the Peacocks to win this fixture if the sides are truly even.

The first week of the new season suggested the bounce from home supporters returning may be even larger in these early days, with seven home sides winning their openers.

That leaves me believing Leeds are a bit undervalued here at +135 odds and a 42.6% implied probability. I wouldn’t play them if they get more expensive than +125, though.

Quillen’s Pick: Leeds ML (+135)

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