Peter Byrne – Pool/Getty Images. Pictured: Mohamed Salah.
Liverpool vs. West Brom Odds
| Liverpool Odds | -770 [BET NOW] |
| West Brom Odds | +1800 [BET NOW] |
| Draw | +800 [BET NOW] |
| Over/Under | 3.5 (+104/-127) [BET NOW] |
| Time | 11:30 a.m. ET |
| TV | NBC Sports Network |
| Odds as of Saturday afternoon and via DraftKings. Get up to a $1,000 sign-up bonus at DraftKings today. | |
Liverpool looks to maintain its top spot on the Premier League table on Sunday morning when it hosts 19th-place West Brom.
Liverpool is back to its goal-scoring ways after putting seven goals in the back of the net against Crystal Palace last weekend.
The Reds are a perfect 7-0-0 at Anfield this season and have outscored their opponents 11-2 in their last four home matches. Can they continue their dominant ways against one of the worst teams in the Premier League?
West Brom could end up as one of the worst Premier League sides in the last two decades. The Baggies are currently in the relegation zone and have lost four of their last five matches.
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Liverpool
The Reds are back to their winning ways, looking to extend their unbeaten streak to 10 on Saturday. They’ve been successful thanks to their offense, which is the highest-scoring in the Premier League at 2.07 xG per match.
Liverpool’s defense has been a tad shaky this season, as it’s allowing 1.31 xG per match. However, it did give up seven goals to Aston Villa at the beginning of the season, so if you throw out that performance, it’s allowing only 1.18 xG per match.
Additionally, its worse-than-expected play on defense is also due to the number of injuries it has dealt with this season.
The Reds are also going through an injury situation at the moment. Center back Virgil Van Dijk, center back Joe Gomez, winger/striker Diogo Jota and central midfielder Thiago will all miss this match.
Matches involving Liverpool have been the highest-scoring in the Premier League this season, logging in at 3.38 xG on average. That high number of goals has led to 71% of its games having three or more goals scored.
West Brom
West Brom’s offense is off to one of the worst starts in Premier League history, according to xG models. It’s so bad that it fired Slaven Bilic and brought Sam Allardyce to try and right the ship. The Baggies are creating just 0.54 xG per match through their first 14 contests and have generated over 1.0 xG in just two of their first 12 matches.
If things weren’t bad enough on the offensive end, West Brom also boasts the worst defense in the Premier League, allowing 2.08 xG per match. In addition, Action Network colleague Anthony Dabbundo pointed out to me that the Baggies have been one of the worst second-half teams in the Premier League.
The table below (via Understat) shows that the Baggies have an unheard of -16.69 xG differential in the second half. So, even if they’re able to hold Liverpool in the first half, don’t be surprised if things unravel after halftime.
Projections and Pick
This game has a Liverpool rout written all over it. West Brom may have held another giant in Manchester City to a 1-1 draw on the road, but it allowed 2.82 xG in that match. So, it really should have allowed more than one goal.
I think this game can get out of hand, so I like the value of Liverpool -3 at +195.
Pick: Liverpool -3 (+195).
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