Andrew Powell/Liverpool FC via Getty Images. Pictured: Liverpool forwards Roberto Firmino (left) and Mohamed Salah (middle)
Sheffield United vs. Liverpool Odds
| Sheffield United Odds | +675 |
| Liverpool Odds | -275 |
| Draw | +400 |
| Over/Under | 1.5 (-650/+390) |
| Day | Time | Sunday | 2:15 p.m. ET |
| How To Watch | Peacock Premium |
| Odds as of noon ET on Saturday and via PointsBet. | |
The last of five Premier League matches on Sunday features soon-to-be-relegated Sheffield United hosting soon-to-be-dethroned Liverpool.
The Blades are surely headed back down to the Championship next year, while the Reds’ tenure as champions is quickly drawing to a close with Manchester City likely to clinch the title well before the end of the season.
Here’s a closer look at the two clubs, followed by a prediction.
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Sheffield United
Sheffield United have taken just 11 points from their first 25 matches. They entered the weekend 14 points behind 17th place Newcastle, and have a 98% chance of being relegated according to FiveThirtyEight.
It took all the way until Jan. 12 for Sheffield United to secure their first victory of the season, against Newcastle. They actually followed that up with two more wins over their next four league games against Manchester United and West Brom, but they’ve lost their past three in a row: 1-0 at Fulham last week, preceded by defeats at the hands of West Ham (3-0) and Chelsea (2-1).
Sheffield United have been rather unlucky this season. They’ve scored a league-low 15 goals, but their xG (expected goal) total is 22.4 according to FBRef.com, better than three other teams. And they’ve conceded 41 goals, from an xG conceded total of only 35.9.
But their xG differential of -13.5 would still have them in the relegation zone right now — in 18th, ahead of only West Brom (-25.2) and Crystal Palace (-16.5).
Liverpool
As disappointing as Sheffield United have been, after their ninth-place finish last season, Liverpool have arguably been even more disappointing. The defending champs are currently in sixth place with 40 points, five behind fourth-place West Ham. They have a fight on their hands just to secure Champions League qualification for next season — right now their chances of doing so are just 54% according to FiveThirtyEight.
The Reds have lost four league matches in a row for the first time since the 1986-87 season, and three of those four defeats came at home — simply shocking. Plus they scored just two goals in those four losses combined, to Brighton (1-0), Manchester City (4-1), Leicester City (3-1) and Everton (2-0).
On the bright side, Liverpool still look likely to advance to the Champions League quarterfinals. Prior to that loss to Everton last Saturday, Liverpool did defeat RB Leipzig 2-0 in the first leg of their Round of 16 tie.
And the underlying numbers reveal Liverpool have been rather unlucky this season as well — they’re still third in the league in xG differential at +14.7, behind only Man City (30.8) and Chelsea (16.5).
Betting Analysis & Picks
Liverpool are likely to break their losing streak at Bramall Lane on Sunday, but I don’t like paying such a heavy price for that.
Liverpool beat Sheffield United 2-1 back in October, creating 2.5 xG in that match. I’d be very surprised if they don’t score in the rematch.
It’s also pretty likely they’ll concede. Liverpool have given up 34 goals in 25 matches this season — one more than all of last season. Only six teams in the league have conceded more. And the injury bug continues to bite — now Jordan Henderson, who was filling in at center back, is out.
We can confirm Jordan Henderson has undergone a successful operation on the injury he sustained during Saturday’s Merseyside derby with Everton.
— Liverpool FC (@LFC) February 26, 2021
Given Liverpool’s instability at the back, I’ll say both teams get on the scoresheet on Sunday.
Pick: Both Teams To Score — Yes (-109)
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