Jack Thomas – WWFC/Wolves via Getty Images. Pictured: Hwang Hee-chan.
Wolves vs. Brentford Odds
| Wolves Odds | -115 |
| Brentford Odds | +390 |
| Draw | +235 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (+140 / -175) |
| Day | Time | Saturday | 7:30 a.m. ET |
| How To Watch | NBCSN | fuboTV |
| Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here. | |
Two of the more refreshing faces in the Premier League do battle in Saturday’s early kickoff when Wolverhampton Wanderers host Brentford FC at the Molineux Stadium.
Wolves finally shook off some of their poor luck to begin the season last weekend with a 2-0 away win at Watford in Matchweek 4. Meanwhile, Bentford succumbed to their first top-flight loss since their last season in the English first division, way back in 1946-47, in a 1-0 defeat home to Brighton.
This is these clubs’ first meeting since Jan. 2 of 2018, when Wolves earned a 3-0 victory in the League Championship en route to a first-place finish and promotion to the Premiership.
Wolves Finally Broke Through
First-year manager Bruno Lage’s side entered the September international break winless and as perhaps the most unfortunate club in the Premier League’s opening weeks in terms of chances against goals.
Eventually, that was rectified in a comfortable away win against overmatched Watford. It took a 74th-minute own goal to finally burst through a season-opening shutout streak before substitute Hwang Hee-chan put the game away in the 88th minute.
Performances off the bench from Hee-chan and Daniel Podence have prompted speculation Lage could insert either or both into Saturday’s starting XI.
With a -1 goal difference, Wolves are still lagging their expected goals (xG) considerably, with their +3.2 xG difference the third-largest in the Premier League.
Brentford Coming Off First EPL Loss
The newly promoted visitors from London make the trip to the Midlands looking for a third consecutive away draw.
Their presence is also a reminder Wolves don’t have the market cornered on poor luck in the early days of the new season. The Bees’ +1 goal difference and xG difference of 1.1 are about even.
But on a game-by-game level, Brentford have been unlucky in the three games since a wonderful 2-0 home win against Arsenal to open life in the Premier League. They notched more xG than their opposition in all three of those matches but took only two points.
On the other hand, Brentford’s inability to find the net in last weekend’s 1-0 home loss to Brighton is also indicative of the difficulty newly promoted sides often have at a new level.
Brentford were easily the better team against Brighton in the first half but failed to score. And in the second half, the Bees ran out of ideas without an abundance of bench options available to change the game.
Betting Analysis & Pick
On first glance, playing the over at +140 odds is really appealing here.
Neither of these teams has played a match where total goals have gone above 2.5, though that’s not for lack of attacking endeavor. There’s a sense with both clubs that the games might become a lot more wide open if a first goal were to come inside, say, the opening half hour.
But if I’m being honest, I just don’t know these teams well enough to tell you to advise that.
Here’s what I do know: Wolves are extremely unlucky not to have more than three points so far. Their xG difference of 3.2 is the third-highest in the Premier League, and that’s despite an opening stretch against three top-seven finishers from the previous season. And home sides have won 19 of 40 matches so far (47.5%) in the new campaign with fans back at the grounds.
Brentford’s +1.1 xG difference is also notable. But the Bees have faced a much weaker opening schedule (and yes, I include Arsenal in that), and it’s pretty clear they’re the weaker team here.
That’s enough for me to play Wolves on the money line at -115 odds and an implied 53.5% probability. I suspect we may look back on that price later this year and realize it was a relative bargain.
Pick: Wolves ML (-115)
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