Visionhau/Getty Images. Pictured: Harry Kane.
Spurs vs. Watford Odds
| Spurs Odds | -235 |
| Watford Odds | +750 |
| Draw | +340 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-120 / +100) |
| Day | Time | Sunday | 9 a.m. ET |
| How To Watch | Peacock Premium |
| Odds updated Saturday afternoon via DraftKings. | |
Tottenham Hotspur look to make it three wins in a row to start their Premier League campaign when they host newly promoted Watford.
Tottenham have gotten off to a flying start, beating both Manchester City and Wolves 1-0. What is impressive is they’ve done most of that without their best player Harry Kane, who made a brief appearance against Wolves last Sunday. The 28-year-old has been trying to force a move to Manchester City, but he announced this week that he will be staying in North London for this season:
It was incredible to see the reception from the Spurs fans on Sunday and to read some of the messages of support I've had in the last few weeks. 👏⚽
I will be staying at Tottenham this summer and will be 100% focused on helping the team achieve success. #COYS pic.twitter.com/uTN78tHlk1
— Harry Kane (@HKane) August 25, 2021
Watford came back down to earth last weekend and got thoroughly dominated at Brighton, losing 2-0. The Hornets are going to find life difficult back in the Premier League, as they are projected to be battling against relegation all season long. This will be their first match against the top seven, so we’ll see how competitive they are.
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Spurs Enjoy Home Cooking
Tottenham were vastly overrated, both offensively and defensively last season.
Spurs scored 68 goals on the season but created only 56.68 expected goals (xG) during the 2020-21 campaign. In defense, they gave up 45 goals but allowed opponents to create 52.55 xG overall. That has continued into this season, as Spurs have been out-created, according to xG, 4.23-2.87, despite winning their first two matches.
However, Spurs had most of their success come last season at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, where they secured 33 of a possible 57 points, which was the third-best mark in the Premier League. They also had a +7.78 xGD at home, so they should have no trouble with Watford.
Tottenham are also almost entirely reliant on Kane and Son Heung-min to create all of their scoring chances. Last season, the duo combined for 40 of Spurs’ 66 league goals. With Kane back in the lineup, Spurs’ offense should get back to where it was last season, averaging 1.49 xG per match.
Hornets Set To Be Stung in Premier League
The reason Watford are projected to be one of the worst teams in the Premier League is because of the three promoted teams, it had the worst expected goal differential last season in the Championship. Also, clubs coming up have not fared well in their first season in the Premier League.
On average since 2005, teams coming up from the Championship have allowed 54% more goals per match in the top flight than they did in the second division. Conversely, offenses see about 35% less goals scored per match in the Premier League than in the Championship.
Watford may have beaten Aston Villa 3-2, but the xG battle actually favored Villa at 1.26-1.22. Then the Hornets were deserving of their 2-0 defeat at Brighton, allowing the Seagulls to create 1.75 xG while only creating 0.47 themselves.
Betting Analysis & Pick
Even though Spurs are a big time negative regression team, I don’t think that is going to come against the projected worst Premier League club coming into the season, especially with Kane back in the lineup.
I am going to back Tottenham’s spread of -1.5 at +140 (DraftKings) and would play it down to +130.
Pick: Tottenham -1.5 (+140, play to +130)
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