Craig Mercer/MB Media/Getty Images. Pictured: Jamie Vardy.
Norwich City vs. Leicester City Odds
| Norwich City Odds | +330 |
| Leicester City Odds | -115 |
| Draw | +270 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-135 / +110) |
| Day | Time | Saturday | 10 a.m. ET |
| How To Watch | NBCSN | fuboTV |
| Odds updated Friday afternoon via DraftKings. | |
Newly-promoted Norwich looks to rebound after back-to-back losses to start their Premier League campaign when they host Leicester.
Norwich’s first two matches back in the Premier League have gone about as bad as you could imagine, losing 3-0 to Liverpool at home and 5-0 to Manchester City on the road.
The Canaries won the English Championship last season, but historically, teams coming up from the second division have found it difficult to survive in their first season. So, Norwich needs a result quickly to avoid falling into the relegation battle this early in the season.
Leicester narrowly missed out on a Champions League spot last season and coming into 2021-22, the Foxes are poised once again to challenge for the top four.
They won their opening match against Wolves, 1-0, but were thrashed, 4-1, at West Ham on Monday after an Ayoze Perez red card in the 40th minute.
The Foxes did some very solid business this transfer window, bringing in Patson Daka from Salzburg, Boubakary Soumaré from Lille, and Jannik Vestergaard & Ryan Bertrand from Southampton. So, they will once again be a challenger for the top six.
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Norwich City Not Adjusting to New Level
Norwich had a ton of firepower in the Championship last season, averaging 1.67 xG per match — the most in the second division.
The Canaries have some talent going forward in attack via Teemu Pukki and Todd Cantwell, who combined for 32 goals last season. However, they did sell one of their best players in Emi Buendía to Aston Villa this transfer window.
Defensively, Norwich is going to really struggle because they vastly over-performed in the Championship by allowing 52.50 xG, which was well above their actual total allowed of 36 goals. Teams coming up from the Championship allow 54% more goals in the Premier League than they did in the second division, so Norwich’s projected xGA per match sits at 1.75 heading into the season.
Their first two matches have shown their defense may be a bit overmatched in the Premier League, letting in eight goals and allowing Manchester City and Liverpool to create 4.54 xG, while only creating 1.92 xG themselves.
Leicester City Needs to Create With Talent
Leicester has not looked good through their first two matches against Wolves and West Ham, as they’ve been out-created, 1.29 xG to 3.71 xG.
The problem is that they shouldn’t be this bad offensively because the Foxes are finally healthy up front and have loads of talent.
They boast three strikers who all are clinical up front in Jamie Vardy, Kelechi Iheanacho, and Daka. They also have Harvey Barnes, a talented left winger who’s healthy after missing most of the second half of last season. They’ve held onto James Maddison as well, despite a lot of interest from bigger clubs.
The problem is Brendan Rodgers is trying to play a 4-2-3-1, which the Foxes had some success out of last season. But they really hit their stride when he switched to a 3-4-1-2 so that Vardy and Iheanacho could be on the pitch at the same time. Now with the addition of Daka, it’s crazy to me that he still only wants to play one striker, when they had a +4.11 xGD and averaged 1.87 xG per 90 minutes when playing out of the 3-4-1-2.
Leicester did most of their damage last season against the bottom half of the table, especially away from home. The Foxes went 9-5-0 on the road with a +8.3 xGD against teams outside of the top six. So, they should have no problem against a Norwich team that will be battling relegation all season long.
Betting Analysis & Pick
Leicester’s moneyline has dropped considerably from opening, going from -140 to -115 on DraftKings.
The Foxes do have a few injuries to deal with, but their entire attack is healthy for Saturday’s fixture, so in my opinion, it’s a perfect buy-low spot for Leicester.
Since I have Leicester projected at -151, I think there’s some value on them at -115 (DraftKings) and would play it up to -132.
Pick: Leicester -115
