Shaun Botterill/Getty Images. Pictured: Roberto Firmino (left) and Virgil van Dijk.
Liverpool vs. Burnley Odds
| Liverpool Odds | -500 |
| Burnley Odds | +1300 |
| Draw | +625 |
| Over/Under | 3.5 (+135 / -170) |
| Day | Time | Saturday | 7:30 a.m. ET |
| How To Watch | Peacock Premium |
| Odds updated Friday morning via DraftKings. | |
With Virgil van Dijk back in the fold, Liverpool looked back to their normal selves to start the Premier League weekend.
After a pretty comfortable opening-week matchup against Norwich, the Reds host Burnley to kick off the second weekend of Premier League play on Saturday morning.
While Liverpool comfortably dispatched the Canaries, Burnley were falling apart at Turf Moor against Brighton & Hove Albion. It was a disastrous start for a team that could be fighting for its Premier League life this season.
Anfield is going to be rocking, full for the first time in more than 17 months. The result doesn’t seem to be in much doubt, but let’s break down how we can find value in this matchup.
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Liverpool Boosted by van Dijk’s Return
The return of van Dijk in defense is actually going to boost Liverpool’s attack in a big way. The Dutchman is a dynamic passer out of the back, and given the Reds’ fast-paced, dynamic attack when they’re at their best, it usually starts in defense.
Liverpool will be even better when the likes of Thiago and Jordan Henderson are available in midfield, since there is a lack of noteworthy playmakers without them. Both are closing in on returns but might not be fit enough to start this game.
The Reds did concede 1.33 expected goals (xG) to Norwich, according to Understat, and most of that is down to play in midfield. The Canaries actually completed more passes than the Reds and had a higher passing success percentage. They just didn’t turn any of their success going forward into goals.
I’m not sure Liverpool will run into a similar challenge against Burnley. The Clarets are not a team looking to get on the ball and play like Norwich, and they’ll be playing a much more defensive style at Anfield.
Even if the Reds start a midfield of James Milner, Naby Keita and Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain again, I don’t expect them to struggle as much.
Going forward, Liverpool’s front three were dynamic. The Reds scored three times on just 1.79 xG and received goals from Diogo Jota, Roberto Firmino and Mohamad Salah, who added two assists. Jota’s goal came in the 26th minute, which also helped inflate Norwich’s xG total since the Canaries played most of the match from behind.
Clarets Set for Relegation Battle
Burnley’s strategy of muscling their way to Premier League safety every year is going to eventually fail. The Clarets are going to be back in the Championship soon, and one of my best bets before this season was that it would be for the 2022-23 campaign.
Burnley finished 17th last season, although they were 11 points clear of relegation. They had a non-penalty expected goal difference (NPxGD) of -20.93 that ranked 17th in the league, and that number is actually better than their actual -22.
The Clarets’ most noteworthy move of the summer was bringing in center back Nathan Collins from Stoke City. Otherwise, this is the exact same team that lined up in a defensive 4-4-2 and struggled to create much of anything at times going forward.
The Burnley attack is focused on set pieces or feeding its center-forward pairing, which last week was Chris Wood and Jay Rodriguez, to start a slow-developing counter-attack. Last week, the Clarets scored in the second minute against Brighton, who eventually scored in the 73rd and 78th minutes to secure an impressive three points.
Burnley did register 1.80 xG against Brighton, but the fact that they converted just once speaks to a lack of quality going forward. Dwight McNeil has a strong left foot on the wing and should eventually move up in the soccer world with a move away from Burnley, but he’s really the only noteworthy playmaker in the team.
Expect the Clarets to set up in their 4-4-2 and apply a lot of physical pressure to the Reds, especially if the hosts field a similar midfield to last weekend.
Betting Analysis & Pick
How lopsided is this matchup, according to sportsbooks? DraftKings has Liverpool -1.5 at -190.
I don’t love the total here because I don’t necessarily see Burnley scoring. Over 2.5 goals is a staggering -190, which means books are clearly confident the Reds attack is going to thrive.
I do see a big win for the Reds here and see the best way of backing that as Liverpool -2 (+110) at DraftKings. That way, bettors have a bit of extra security in case they only win by a pair.
It wouldn’t shock me at all if this becomes an embarrassment for Burnley, whose relegation odds are going to be close to even soon.
Pick: Liverpool -2 (+110)
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