Catherine Ivill/Getty Images. Pictured: Raphinha.
Leeds vs. Everton Odds
| Leeds Odds | +135 |
| Everton Odds | +210 |
| Draw | +245 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-150 / +120) |
| Day | Time | Saturday | 10 a.m. ET |
| How To Watch | Peacock Premium |
| Odds updated Friday afternoon via DraftKings. | |
Leeds United will welcome the first full-capacity crowd to a Premier League match at Elland Road since 2004 when they host Everton on Saturday.
Leeds were one of the positive surprises of the 2020-21 campaign with their ninth-place finish after a promotion the year before.
But before last season — a campaign contested almost entirely behind closed doors — the side now managed by Marcelo Bielsa had spent 16 consecutive seasons in the lower divisions.
Leeds opened with a disappointing 5-1 defeat at Manchester United last weekend.
Meanwhile, Everton impressed in rallying to a 3-1 home win over Southampton to begin life under new manager Rafa Benitez.
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Can Leeds Bounce Back After Rough Opener?
Leeds weren’t as bad as the final score suggested in their season-opening trip to Old Trafford, losing the expected goals (xG) battle 1.5-0.6. But it’s hardly the first time things have unraveled in a Premier League defeat for the Peacocks.
Eight of their league losses a season ago came by at least two goals, and half of those by at least three. Perhaps Man U also have their number after winning the same fixture, 6-2, last season.
So, this isn’t a group that should be particularly rattled by a sizable defeat in the long-term. But in the shorter term, their record in matches following a multi-goal defeat was 2-2-4 (W/D/L).
As the transfer deadline draws near, Bielsa has indicated Leeds are likely finished making summer additions after signing versatile defender Junior Firpo and goalkeeper Kristoffer Klaesson.
Firpo came off the bench at half at Old Trafford. So, he was on the pitch to see Leeds level through Luke Ayling, then concede four times in the space of 20 minutes.
What to Expect From Everton
Benitez’s mission to win goodwill from Everton fans is off to a strong start after their opening victory, but the Spaniard looked on shaky ground for the opening 45 minutes against Southampton.
The Saints’ Adam Armstrong opened the scoring after a brutal turnover from Toffees center back Michael Keane put his team ahead 1-0 at the half.
Everton were ultimately solid value for the win, leading Southampton 2.4-0.7 in xG. Richarlison, Abdoulaye Doucoure and Dominic Calvert-Lewin scored the second-half goals. And after 90 minutes, the Toffees’ +1.69 xG difference proved to be the highest in the Premier League’s opening weekend.
The victory also illustrated how Benitez may drastically alter Everton tactically as the club looks to sell James Rodriguez in order to make other signings. The Colombian remains out due to COVID-19 health and safety protocols.
Everton and Southampton completed only 70% of their passes each in a frenetic opening affair.
The hosts focused their attack primarily down the flanks, sending in 15 crosses, including those leading to the home side’s first and third goals.
Betting Analysis & Pick
While Everton are undergoing a substantial tactical change, neither of these teams have seen massive offseason squad overhauls, which makes data from last year a bit more useful than it might be otherwise.
Leeds finished the previous year in ninth, one place above Everton, and with an xG difference of -5.4 to Everton’s -4.8.
On paper, Everton have the deeper squad (and larger wage bill), but when you factor in Rodriguez’s absence and the learning curve of a new manager, it’s hard to see much that divides these teams at this early juncture.
Before COVID-19, Premier League teams won roughly 46% of their home matches, which is about the frequency you’d expect the Peacocks to win this fixture if the sides are truly even.
The first week of the new season suggested the bounce from home supporters returning may be even larger in these early days, with seven home sides winning their openers.
That leaves me believing Leeds are a bit undervalued here at +135 odds and a 42.6% implied probability. I wouldn’t play them if they get more expensive than +125, though.
Pick: Leeds United ML (+135)
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