Nathan Stirk/Getty Images. Pictured: Graham Potter (left) and Shane Duffy.
Brighton vs. Watford Odds
| Brighton Odds | -143 |
| Watford Odds | +450 |
| Draw | +245 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (+116 / -155) |
| Day | Time | Saturday | 12:30 p.m. ET |
| How To Watch | NBCSN | Peacock Premium | fuboTV |
| Odds updated Friday afternoon via PointsBet. | |
Brighton & Hove Albion look to start their Premier League campaign off with back-to-back wins when they host newly promoted side Watford.
The Seagulls got their Premier League campaign off to a great start coming from behind in the second half to beat Burnley 2-1 on the road last weekend. Brighton had one of the most historically unlucky seasons last year and are due for a ton of positive regression this year.
It’s matches like this against bottom-half sides that Brighton were completely dominant but just couldn’t finish their chances. We’ll see if the tides have turned on Saturday against a team like Watford.
The Hornets, meanwhile, started their Premier League campaign with 3-2 win over Aston Villa. The Hornets went up 3-0 midway through the second half but had to hold on for dear life to avoid a furious Aston Villa comeback.
Watford is back in the Premier League after spending only one season in the Championship, but they were one of the favorites to be relegated coming into season, which means their joy from opening weekend may be shortlived.
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Seagulls Return Home Flying High
Brighton showed a ton of resilience after going down 1-0 in the second minute to Burnley.
What was most impressive about Brighton was how much better they got as the match went along against the Clarets. Burnley dominated the first half, out-creating Brighton on expected goals (xG) by a 1.67-0.23 margin. However, the beauty of the Seagulls playing under a fantastic manager like Graham Potter is their versatility as the match goes on.
Brighton made a big switch in the second half, making a point to try to beat Burnley on the outside channels, which is the easiest way to break down a 4-4-2 formation. Brighton was successful in doing so since their two goals came from crosses into the box. They out-created their opponent by 1.46-0.13 xG in the second half.
We’ve talked ad nauseam about how unlucky Brighton was last season and how they are due for so much positive regression. These are the types of matches that the Seagulls are going to be undervalued against inferior opponents, especially at home, considering they had a +18.13 xGDiff at the American Express Community Stadium last season. That wound up being the third-best mark in the entire league.
Hornets Projected for Relegation Battle
Watford might have beaten Aston Villa on opening weekend, but they were projected to be one of the three worst teams in the Premier League coming into season.
On average since 2005, teams coming up from the Championship have allowed 54% more goals per match in the top flight than they did in the second division. Conversely, offenses see about 35% less goals scored per match in the Premier League than in the Championship.
Since Watford had the lowest xGDiff of the three promoted teams, this is a great opportunity to fade them at a fairly short price.
Watford’s three goals were actually quite lucky when you break it down. The first two came off deflections and the third was a wonder goal outside the box from Juan Hernandez that only registered a .03 xG value.
In fact, the Hornets’ three goals combined only had a 0.25 xG value, so they were quite fortunate in their first match back in the Premier League.
Betting Analysis & Pick
In my opinion, Brighton are criminally undervalued in this spot. We are talking about the third-best club at home last season, based on expected goal differential, going up against the worst of the three newly promoted sides.
So, I think there is tons of value on Brighton at -143 and I would play it up to -185.
Pick: Brighton -143
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