Tony Marshall/Getty Images. Pictured: Danny Ings of Aston Villa.
Aston Villa vs. Newcastle Odds
| Aston Villa Odds | -125 |
| Newcastle Odds | +320 |
| Draw | +290 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-130 / +105) |
| Day | Time | Saturday | 10 a.m. ET |
| How To Watch | NBCSN | fuboTV |
| Odds updated Friday afternoon via DraftKings. | |
Aston Villa and Newcastle both dropped their opening matches of the Premier League season last week and will look to avoid two consecutive losses when they meet on Saturday at Villa Park.
Newcastle surrendered a 1-0 and 2-1 lead at home against West Ham, losing 4-2 in the worst defensive display of the opening weekend. Villa were a bit unlucky defensively to concede three to newly-promoted Watford, but their attack didn’t produce much for optimism with just 0.4 xG until a late penalty for Danny Ings made it a 3-2 defeat.
Villa attempted to replace Jack Grealish by committee with signing Emi Buendia, Ings and Leon Bailey. They’re one of the more interesting teams in the PL this year, but their vulnerability in defensive transition means they’re likely to concede in this game.
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How Will Aston Villa Replace Grealish?
Villa’s attack really struggled to get anything going against Watford away from home in their opener. Their midfield was so built around Grealish for ball progression last season that without him, they often lacked an outlet. Throw in an Ollie Watkins injury and the problem got even worse.
Watkins isn’t going to play on Saturday for Villa, either, and Ings doesn’t really offer the same ball progression outlet. He’s more of a passer and shooter than a ball-progression outlet. That’s why the insertion of Bailey to run into space and take on defenders on the outside should bolster this Villa attack.
And all-around attacking midfielder Emí Buendia led the Championship in chances created one season after averaging 0.34 xG + xA per 90 in the PL with Norwich City. I’m projecting a big season for him in the Grealish-esque role, even if he didn’t show much against Watford.
Newcastle’s Defense Remains Poor
Newcastle attempted the fourth-most shots in the PL in the opening weekend. Seventeen shots and 1.4 xG isn’t the best overall return, but they did produce two high-quality chances and looked dangerous on the counter. This was the continuation of an end-of-year Newcastle trend, where the offense was improved and the defense remained really, really bad.
The Magpies allowed 2.2 expected goals, 10 passes into their own penalty area and 32 touches inside their own penalty area. All of those are pretty alarming for a team that played at home against a non big seven club. Newcastle’s offense with Joe Willock, Allan Saint-Maximin and Wilson is perfectly built to get one or two really good shots per game, exactly the kind of chances Villa have been allowing for the last 15 matches.
Betting Analysis & Pick
My projections show both teams to score should be lined closer to -145 than the -130 currently being offered. Villa’s defensive regression was significant at the end of last season, and it appears to have continued against Watford in the opener.
With Newcastle’s ability to hit teams on the counter through Callum Wilson, this game should be at least 1-1. Villa conceded at least 1.0 xG in each of their last 12 games and at least 2.0 xGA in three of those games.
Neither team likes to progress through the midfield in this game, so it has the potential to be end-to-end action with lots of chances at either end and not a ton of time spent building attacks through the midfield.
Newcastle offered very little resistance to West Ham’s attacking lineup, and Bailey should be joining Ings and Buendia to liven up the Villa offense for this matchup.
Pick: Both Teams to Score (-130 or better)
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