Julian Finney/Getty Images. Pictured: Brentford standout Ivan Toney, right, controls the ball.
Aston Villa vs. Brentford Odds
| Aston Villa Odds | -105 |
| Brentford Odds | +275 |
| Draw | +270 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-125 / -105) |
| Day | Time | Saturday | 10 a.m. ET |
| How To Watch | CNBC | fuboTV |
| Odds updated Friday afternoon via BetMGM. | |
Two teams coming off promising results will meet on Saturday morning at Villa Park when Aston Villa host Brentford.
After a loss to open their season, Villa got all three points last week at home. Brentford, meanwhile, took a solid point away from their trip to South London.
The Bees have been a great story so far this season but face a stern test in Villa. Let’s find the betting value.
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Villa Struggling Without Grealish
After dropping their season opener away to Watford, Villa bounced back last weekend with a 2-0 win over Newcastle.
The defeat against the Hornets did see Dean Smith’s side be the victim of some bad luck. Two Watford goals were deflected, and they only created 1.35 expected goals (xG) while still netting twice.
The performance against Newcastle was better, but it still left a lot of room for improvement. Villa’s two goals came through a Danny Ings bicycle kick and Anwar El-Ghazi penalty. Take out the penalty, and they registered just 0.46 xG.
Over two games, Villa registered just 0.80 non-penalty expected goals (NPxG), which is the lowest mark in the Premier League. Considering those games came against Watford and Newcastle, it’s a bad start going forward for a Jack Grealish-less Aston Villa.
The good news for Villa this season is that it’s not going to take much for them to necessarily score from open play. The surprise signing of Ings has already paid off with two goals (one penalty kick) in two games, and the former Southampton man could actually fit well with Ollie Watkins when he returns.
A strength for Villa is their backline, led by center backs Ezri Konsa and Tyrone Mings with Emiliano Martinez between the pipes.
Bees Look to Continue Strong Start
I think Brentford’s win over Arsenal said more about the Gunners than the Bees. Arsenal were hopeless, registering 22 shots that created just 1.02 xG. That’s a horrible rate, but it was not a huge surprise since they were without their top two strikers in Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang and Alexandre Lacazette.
I was actually more impressed with Brentford’s 0-0 draw against Crystal Palace, against whom the Bees won the xG battle 0.71-0.61.
Palace are looking to play a more attacking brand of soccer this season, which could actually put them in the relegation battle again. Getting points in any away fixture is crucial for Premier League survival, though, and the fact that Brentford more than held their own at Selhurt Park is an incredibly promising sign.
A trip to Villa park against a team coming off a win is going to be a tough challenge, though, especially one that has a stable defense that has been playing together for awhile now.
I anticipate a tough day for Ivan Toney, who hasn’t scored yet this season. Toney scored 31 goals last season in 45 matches for Brentford in the Championship, although a league-high nine of those came from the penalty spot. I know, 22 goals and 10 assists from open play isn’t bad at all, but he needs to prove himself at the top level.
Toney has just 0.33 xG through Brentford’s first two games, often drifting out wide and creating space for the likes of Bryan Mbeumo and midfielder Christian Norgaard. I’d expect more of the same against a capable and physical center-back pair in Konsa and Mings.
Betting Analysis & Pick
I was shocked that this total was a pick’em.
Through four combined games, these teams have registered 3.40 NPxG, and 2.60 of that has come from Brentford — and about 0.6 of that came from a throw-in that they scored off against Arsenal that 95% of top-flight teams around Europe would’ve defended better.
While both teams have a quality striker and potential to score goals, the numbers have not been there yet.
Maybe this is the day that Toney breaks out and scores, but the matchup isn’t ideal. Maybe Emiliano Buendia finally starts creating chances for Villa, even partially filling the void left by Grealish.
But none of those things have happened yet. Villa are solid defensively, and Brentford will be focused on stability in the back in every match away from home. Give me Under 2.5 at anything better than -125.
Pick: Under 2.5 (-105, play to -125)
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