Southampton vs. Burnley Odds
| Southampton Odds | +105 |
| Burnley Odds | +290 |
| Draw | +230 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (+120/-148) |
| Day | Time | Sunday | 7 a.m. ET |
| How To Watch | Peacock Premium |
| Odds as of Saturday afternoon via DraftKings. | |
The first of four Premier League matches on Sunday features 14th-place Southampton hosting 15th-place Burnley.
With nine games remaining in the season, both clubs have 33 points — putting them seven points ahead of 18th-place Fulham, who currently reside in the final relegation spot.
Here’s a closer look at these two clubs, followed by how I’m betting it.
Southampton
Southampton are extremely unlikely to be relegated — just a 1% chance according to FiveThirtyEight. But it’s been a very disappointing season nonetheless.
They have been in a nosedive since mid-January, with 10 defeats, one draw and just one win in their past 12 league matches. And that victory was over last-place Sheffield United.
Southampton have been particularly poor defensively, conceding 51 goals in 29 matches — only 19th-place West Brom had conceded more entering the weekend (57).
They are about where they should be, in terms of the underlying numbers. Southampton are 15th in the league in xG (expected goal) differential according to FBRef, at -9.1.
On the bright side, Southampton have advanced to the FA Cup semifinals. They did so by beating Bournemouth 3-0 in their most recent match, on March 20. But remember, that was a victory over a second-division side.
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Burnley
Burnley are only slightly more likely to be relegated than Southampton — a 3% chance according to FiveThirtyEight. But their form has been much better of late.
They’re coming off a 2-1 win at Everton in their most recent match, although that was way back on March 13. Burnley have lost only one of their past seven league games — a stretch also including a 3-0 win over Crystal Palace, draws against Fulham (1-1), West Brom (0-0), Leicester City (1-1) and Arsenal (1-1), and a 4-0 spanking by Tottenham Hotspur.
Burnley have an identical goal difference to Southampton, at -15. But they’ve scored 14 fewer goals (22), and conceded 14 fewer (37).
In terms of the underlying numbers. Burnley are 17th in the league in xG differential, at -15.9.
Betting Analysis & Pick
Danny Ings, Southampton’s leading scorer this season with eight goals, could return from injury on Sunday. But James Ward-Prowse, who has seven goals, may be out after picking up a knock on international duty with England.
These teams look pretty even. A point would suit both as they try to secure their safety, and Burnley have played a bunch of draws lately.
Here’s hoping for another one.
Pick: Draw (+230)
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