Marc Atkins/Getty Images. Pictured: Mason Holgate of Everton.
Everton vs. Newcastle Odds
| Everton Odds | -186 | |
| Newcastle Odds | +550 | |
| Draw | +300 | |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-108/-115) | |
| Day | Time | Saturday | 7:30 a.m. ET | |
| TV | NBCSN | |
| Odds as of Friday and via DraftKings. | ||
Everton continues their push towards the top four on Saturday morning when they host Newcastle.
Everton returned from a two week pause to draw with Leicester 1-1 on Wednesday. The draw now puts the Toffees in seventh place in the table, but with two games in hand. If they want to be playing European football next season, they need to win favorable matchups like this one on Saturday.
Newcastle looks rudderless under Steve Bruce at the moment, as the Magpies have lost their last five matches. To put it bluntly, Newcastle hasn’t even looked competitive over the past month, as they’ve been outscored 10 to 2.
The losing streak now puts them in danger of relegation, so they need to get a result, especially since West Brom and Fulham are facing off with each other this weekend.
Everton
The reason the Toffees have ascended up the table is because they’ve been red hot as of late, winning five of their last seven matches, including wins over Arsenal, Leicester, and Chelsea. The reason Everton is closing in on the top four is its ability to create a ton of quality chances, averaging 1.35 xGF per match. Dominic Calvert-Lewin is the club’s main goal scorer, averaging 0.64 expected goals per 90 minutes.
The Toffees have had most of their success versus the bottom of the table, collecting 19 of a possible 24 points in eight matches. Expected goals shows those results are legit with Everton having a +4.20 xGD in those matches.
One interesting take away from Wednesday’s match with Leicester is Carlo Ancelotti switched their formation to a 4-4-2, which has not been successful for them this season. The Toffees have a created a total of 0.40 xG in over 200 minutes when playing out of that formation. I’d expect Ancelotti to switch back to Everton’s favored 4-3-3, where they have an expected goal differential of +7.73. Either way, Everton’s attack should be able to overpower Newcastle on Saturday.
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Newcastle
The Magpies have really struggled away from St. James’ Park this season, as they have the second worst xGD in the Premier League at -11.83. The main issue has been they can’t generate any chances in front of net, creating only 7.57 xG in 10 road matches this campaign. In fact, it’s been over 385 minutes of game time since the Magpies have scored a goal away from home.
To say things are bad at Newcastle would be an understatement. Steve Bruce is on the hottest of seats at the moment and is now refusing to talk to the media.
Newcastle boss Steve Bruce REFUSES to take questions from newspapers at his press conference, as pressure takes its toll | @CraigHope_DM
https://t.co/Wql4ePW9SY— MailOnline Sport (@MailSport) January 25, 2021
Newcastle’s struggles come down to not being able to create anything in front of net, plain and simple. Their defense hasn’t been much better though, allowing 1.57 xG per match, which is quite terrible considering they’ve played out of a 4-4-2 for most of the season.
For those who are unaware, the 4-4-2 is one of the the most defensive formations in modern soccer. So, it’s difficult to see how the Magpies are going to give Everton trouble on Saturday.
Betting Analysis & Picks
I think this match is set up perfectly for an Everton rout. Newcastle’s inability to create chances in front of net is a major issue and one that might lead to relegation.
Since I have the Everton spread projected at -1.17, I’ll back the Toffees at -1 at -105 odds (DraftKings).
Pick: Everton -1 (-105)
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