Premier League Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: Crystal Palace vs. Liverpool (Saturday, Dec. 19)

Crystal Palace vs. Liverpool Odds

Odds as of Friday at 1:30 p.m. ET and via DraftKings. Get up to a $1,000 sign-up bonus at DraftKings today or see more offers and reviews for the best online sportsbooks.

Liverpool look to maintain their top spot in the Premier League table on Saturday morning when they head to Selhurst Park to take on Crystal Palace.

The Reds vaulted up to the top of the table on Wednesday after Roberto Firmino’s 90th-minute header gave them a 2-1 victory over Tottenham. Liverpool have struggled on the road this season, drawing their last four matches in Premier League play. Can they end that skid against Crystal Palace on Saturday as big favorites?

In contrast, Crystal Palace has had an absolute roller-coaster of a season thus far. The Eagles enter Saturday in 12th place with a 5-3-5 record.

Crystal Palace’s high point was a win over Manchester United at Old Trafford in the second game of the season, and the Eagles’ low a home defeat againstNewcastle three weeks ago. Liverpool has won five straight matches at Selhurst Park, so can Palace buck the trend?

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Crystal Palace

Outside of Norwich City last season, Crystal Palace were the worst team in the league during the restart. However, the Eagles have found their usual spot around the middle of the Premier League table to start this new campaign.

The underlying metrics for Crystal Palace last season were not pretty, as manager Roy Hodgson’s side had the fourth-worst xGD in the league. However, this season, the Eagles have drastically improved their xG numbers, as they only have a -0.98 xGD through their first 13 matches.

The biggest difference between the two seasons has been its attack. Crystal Palace is averaging 1.16 expected goals (xG) per match, which doesn’t sound like a lot, but it’s a lot higher than its 0.74 expected goals for (xGF) per match average during last season’s restart.

Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.

That improvement has led to Palace matches being low-scoring, as only two of their home matches this season have gone over 2.5 goals.

Liverpool

The Reds are back to their winning ways, looking to extend their unbeaten streak to 10 on Saturday. They’ve been successful thanks to their offense, which is the highest scoring in the Premier League at 2.01 xG per match.

However, a lot of that scoring has come at home, as they are struggling to create high quality chances on the road. In their six road matches this season, Liverpool have only been able to create 1.62 xGF per match. In fact, the Reds have a -1.26 xGD on the road this season.

However, the Reds are going through an injury situation at the moment. Center back Virgil Van Dijk, central midfielder Naby Keita, center back Joe Gomez, winger/striker Diego Jota and central midfielder Thiago will all miss this match. Center back Joel Matip missed the match against Tottenham but returned to training on Thursday, indicating he could return against Palace.

With all of those injury issues, Liverpool has really been struggling to create chances in front of goal, as they are only averaging 1.23 xG per match in their last four matches.

Projections and Pick

With how few chances both of these teams are creating of late, I think we will see a lower-scoring match than expected.

I have to total projected at 2.78, so I think there is a little bit of value on the total going under the number at plus money.

Pick: Total Under 2.5 Goals (+130) (DraftKings)