John Fisher/Getty Images. Pictured: Hoy Park of the Pittsburgh Pirates.
Pirates vs. Reds Odds
| Pirates Odds | +165 |
| Reds Odds | -197 |
| Over/Under | 9.5 |
| Time | 7:10 p.m. ET |
| TV | BSOH |
Big underdogs are all the rage these days.
Our MLB PRO Report, which aggregates and summarizes five key betting value indicators, has been all moneyline underdogs of late and that looks like unlikely to change on Friday.
Four of the PRO Report’s five value signals are aligned on the Pirates vs. Reds matchup, so, once again, we’ve got a dog to consider on the MLB card..
Let’s not waste anymore time and dive into why our betting tools are so bullish on this Pirates vs. Reds matchup.
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Pirates vs. Reds Pick
Sharp Action
On Thursday afternoon, the Pirates sat as +185 underdogs at DraftKings for their game against the Reds.
Thanks to three separate shots of sharp betting action, that number has been driven down to +165 (click here for live MLB odds) by bettors with the resources and respect to move lines.
PRO Systems
Because the majority of bettors — just 21% have had the courage to take the Pirates thus far — are avoiding the road underdogs, Pittsburgh qualifies for The Action Network’s Betting Against the Public PRO System, which has produced a profit of 153.6 units since the start of the 2005 season.
Model Projection
Sure, the Pirates’ price has already gotten shorter thanks to the sharp action detailed above, but our MLB PRO Projections still suggest there’s enough meat left on that bone for those late to the Pittsburgh party.
Our model projects the Pirates at +141, which translates to a B-minus graded, 3.8% edge when compared to the current consensus line of +165.
And now, let’s be real.
A projected moneyline of +141 correlates to a 41.49% implied probability that Pittsburgh will win. So, to be frank, our model still expects the Pirates to lose.
However, when compared to the 37.74% probability that the +165 implies, the value is there to warrant a wager.
Top Experts
And the icing on the PRO Report cake? Two of our top betting experts are also making a value play on Pittsburgh.
PRO Report Pick: Pirates (+165)